Recent large fluctuations in total ozone

• Published in: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
• Main Authors: Newell, Reginald E., Selkirk, Henry B.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Wiley 1988
• Subjects: Antarctic; South Pole; The Antarctic; Antarc*; South pole
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.49711448104; https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fqj.49711448104; https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.49711448104

Abstract Total ozone changes have been examined for the past 29 years at 32 stations selected from the 70 surface stations in the global ozone network. Recent changes have been dominated by negative anomalies of two general types: reductions in the antarctic since 1980 in spring and deficits since late 1982 primarily in middle latitudes and centred on winter and spring. When significant anomalies from the 1963–1979 monthly means are tabulated world‐wide, it is found that positive anomalies were substantially in excess in 1970 only, whereas negative anomalies have dominated in each of the years 1983 to 1986. Springtime correlations between ozone and temperature at the south pole for the period 1963–1979 are used in linear regression models to predict ozone from temperature for the period since 1980. Recent observed ozone values are consistently lower than values predicted by these models. A potential contributor to the antarctic springtime deficits is reduced planetary wave transport of ozone from the middle latitudes into the lower polar stratosphere accompanying a change in the atmospheric general circulation pattern that is also manifested in global sea surface temperature patterns. Northern hemisphere middle latitude deficits are thought to be related to trace substances ejected by the El Chichon volcanic eruption in April 1982, although equatorward of 45°N negative anomalies are accentuated by the quasi‐biennial oscillation.