The role of storm‐track dynamics in the intraseasonal variability of the winter ENSO teleconnection to the North Atlantic

• Published in: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
• Main Authors: O'Reilly, Christopher H., Drouard, Marie, Ayarzagüena, Blanca, Ambaum, Maarten H. P., Methven, John
• Other Authors: Royal Society
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Wiley 2024
• Subjects: Pacific; North Atlantic
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.4691; https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.4691

Abstract The response of the North Atlantic large‐scale circulation to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits distinct differences between early (November–December) and late (January–February) winter. However, the reasons for this are unclear, particularly regarding the early winter response. Here we examine the role of storm‐track dynamics in influencing the intraseasonal variability of the ENSO teleconnection to the North Atlantic. During late winter there a broad weakening of the eddy heat flux upstream of the North Atlantic storm track during the El Niño phase, which is associated with a broad southward jet shift across North America and the North Atlantic. The late winter response is reinforced by synoptic eddies through enhanced cyclonic wave breaking, consistent with previous studies. However, a stronger teleconnection occurs during early winter. There are modest changes in the North Atlantic eddy heat flux, but strong changes in the upper‐level storm track associated with ENSO, with increased anticyclonic wave breaking during El Niño reinforcing the jet across the central North Atlantic. During early winter there are less frequent northern eddy‐driven jet occurrences in El Niño years and more frequent northern eddy‐driven jet occurrences in La Niña years. These poleward North Atlantic jet excursions typically follow peaks in the eddy heat flux; however, in El Niño years this relationship breaks down and the jet does not transition to the northern position as frequently, despite no clear changes in the upstream eddy heat flux. Composite analysis reveals that precursor storm‐track anomalies upstream over the eastern North Pacific/North America are important in suppressing the poleward jet excursions. These precursors map onto the seasonal mean North Pacific storm‐track anomalies during El Niño. Measured across all years, there is a clear relationship between the mean early winter eastern North Pacific storm‐track activity and eastern North Atlantic eddy‐driven jet, which can explain the early winter ...