Simulation of the Decadal Permafrost Distribution on the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau (China) over the Past 50 Years

• Published in: Permafrost and Periglacial Processes
• Main Authors: Weiming, Cheng, Shangmin, Zhao, Chenghu, Zhou, Xi, Chen
• Other Authors: National Science Technology Support Plan Project, National Natural Science Foundation of China, National Science Technology Basic Special Project
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Wiley 2012
• Subjects: permafrost; Permafrost and Periglacial Processes
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ppp.1758; https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fppp.1758; https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ppp.1758

ABSTRACT Decadal changes in permafrost distribution on the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau (QTP) over the past 50 years (1960–2009) were simulated with a response model that uses data from a digital elevation model, mean annual air temperature (MAAT) and the vertical lapse rate of temperature. Compared with published maps of permafrost distribution, the accuracy of the simulated results is about 85 per cent. The simulation results show: (1) with the continuously rising MAAT over the past 50 years, the simulated areas of permafrost on the QTP have continuously decreased; (2) through areal statistics, the simulated areas of permafrost were 1.60 × 10 6 km 2 , 1.49 × 10 6 km 2 , 1.45 × 10 6 km 2 , 1.36 × 10 6 km 2 and 1.27 × 10 6 km 2 , respectively, in the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s and 2000s; and (3) the rate of permafrost loss has accelerated since the 1980s, and the total area of degraded permafrost is about 3.3 × 10 5 km 2 , which accounts for about one‐fifth of the total area of permafrost in the 1960s. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.