Ocean/atmosphere interaction and Malthusian catastrophes on the northern fringe of the Asian summer monsoon region in China, 1368–1911

• Published in: Journal of Quaternary Science
• Main Authors: Lee, Harry F., Yue, Ricci P. H.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Wiley 2020
• Subjects: North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jqs.3232; https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjqs.3232; https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/jqs.3232; https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1002/jqs.3232

ABSTRACT How and to what extent are human societies affected by climate change? There has been a growing body of research using big historical data and statistical analyses to provide scientific answers to this inter‐disciplinary research question. However, quantitative analysis measuring the historical demographic impact of ocean/atmosphere interaction is still scanty. Here we use 544 years (1368–1911) of historical records to trace the demographic impact brought about by ocean/atmosphere interaction in Shaanxi, located on the northern fringe of the Asian summer monsoon region in China. Our results show that: (1) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) caused Malthusian catastrophes mainly through drought at the inter‐annual scale; (2) drought reinforced the synchrony of various Malthusian catastrophes at the inter‐annual to multi‐decadal scale; and (3) the unusual cycles of NAO drove drought and various Malthusian catastrophes in the cold 1550–1730 period at the multi‐decadal scale. This study represents a pioneering attempt to quantitatively assess the demographic impact caused by the ocean/atmosphere in historical China. Our findings may help to conceptualise the climate–human nexus in those ecologically marginal regions that are impacted by ocean/atmosphere interaction, and to explain the synchrony of social crisis in Eurasia in the 17th century.