The impact of changes in steering patterns on the probability of hurricanes making landfall in the New York City area
Abstract We investigated the variability of annual frequencies of upper air steering patterns that were similar to the one that resulted in the recurvature of Hurricane Sandy's track towards the US east coast in 2012. The analyses showed that such steering patterns could occur over 50 times yea...
| Published in: | International Journal of Climatology |
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| Main Authors: | , |
| Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2023
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.8104 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.8104 |
| Summary: | Abstract We investigated the variability of annual frequencies of upper air steering patterns that were similar to the one that resulted in the recurvature of Hurricane Sandy's track towards the US east coast in 2012. The analyses showed that such steering patterns could occur over 50 times yearly, with higher probabilities in the colder season. The frequencies of these events have decreased since the beginning of the observations in 1979; however, this trend has reversed in the past 10–15 years. These trends are aligned with trends in the intensity of the negative phase North Atlantic Oscillation and the positive phase of the Southern Oscillation Index. In addition to the long‐term trends, we observed a significant periodicity in the annual frequencies of the steering pattern around 6–8 years. Combining the probabilities of relevant steering patterns with the probabilities of hurricanes per season in the relevant domain led to the conclusion that the overall probability of events like Sandy increased from approximately 0.26% in 1979 (0.48 days) to 0.45% (0.81 days) per season since 1979. |
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