Climatological premises of soil drought forecasting

• Published in: Journal of Climatology
• Main Author: Sadowski, M. J.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Wiley 1984
• Subjects: Norwegian Sea
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370040607; https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fjoc.3370040607; https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.3370040607

Abstract Argumentation and premises to formulate soil drought forecasting in Poland in the summer of 1982 are presented in this paper. The forecast was formulated in the spring of 1982 and was based on such premises as the relationship between mean atmospheric pressure for the summer season APL (May‐August) and the atmospheric pressure of the proceeding winter season APZ (January‐March), long‐lasting sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Norwegian Sea and the central part of the northern Atlantic which preceded the occurrence of drought, and the frequency of drought in Poland. It has been stated that a good relationship exists between the atmospheric pressure departure in a summer with soil drought and the same values for the preceding winter season. In the area with values of winter and summer pressure departure higher than 4hPa only summer soil drought occurred in Poland during the twentieth century. Such summer seasons are preceded by long periods with SST anomalies in the M and K/R weather ship areas. As a rule when either of these regions has positive anomalies then the other has negative. Weather conditions in the summer of 1982 have confirmed the correctness of the argument which ended in the formulation of a forecast, as well as the high consistency of forecast weather conditions with those which occurred.