Climatic control on river discharge simulations, Zackenberg River drainage basin, northeast Greenland

• Published in: Hydrological Processes
• Main Authors: Mernild, Sebastian H., Hasholt, Bent, Liston, Glen E.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Wiley 2007
• Subjects: Greenland; glacier; Zackenberg
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6777; https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fhyp.6777; https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/hyp.6777

Abstract A spatially distributed, physically based, hydrologic modeling system (MIKE SHE) was applied to quantify intra‐ and inter‐annual discharge from the snow and glacierized Zackenberg River drainage basin (512 km 2 20% glacier cover) in northeast Greenland. Evolution of snow accumulation, distribution by wind‐blown snow, blowing‐snow sublimation, and snow and ice surface melt were simulated by a spatially distributed, physically based, snow‐evolution modelling system (SnowModel) and used as input to MIKE SHE. Discharge simulations were performed for three periods 1997–2001 (calibration period), 2001–2005 (validation period), and 2071–2100 (scenario period). The combination of SnowModel and MIKE SHE shows promising results; the timing and magnitude of simulated discharge were generally in accordance with observations ( R 2 = 0·58); however, discrepancies between simulated and observed discharge hydrographs do occur (maximum daily difference up to 44·6 m 3 s −1 and up to 9% difference between observed and simulated cumulative discharge). The model does not perform well when a sudden outburst of glacial dammed water occurs, like the 2005 extreme flood event. The modelling study showed that soil processes related to yearly change in active layer depth and glacial processes (such as changes in yearly glacier area, seasonal changes in the internal glacier drainage system, and the sudden release of glacial bulk water storage) need to be determined, for example, from field studies and incorporated in the models before basin runoff can be quantified more precisely. The SnowModel and MIKE SHE model only include first‐order effects of climate change. For the period 2071–2100, future IPCC A2 and B2 climate scenarios based on the HIRHAM regional climate model and HadCM3 atmosphere–ocean general circulation model simulations indicated a mean annual Zackenberg runoff about 1·5 orders of magnitude greater (around 650 mmWE year −1 ) than from today 1997–2005 (around 430 mmWE year −1 ), mainly based on changes in negative ...