Trend and pattern classification of surface air temperature change in the Arctic region

• Published in: Atmospheric Science Letters
• Main Authors: Wanishsakpong, Wandee, McNeil, Nittaya, Notodiputro, Khairil A.
• Other Authors: Center of Excellence in Mathematics
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Wiley 2016
• Subjects: Arctic; Arctic Ocean; Canada; Greenland; Pacific; Norway; Iceland; Alaska; Siberia
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/asl.668; https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1002%2Fasl.668; https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/asl.668

Abstract Monthly seasonally adjusted temperatures above latitude 45°N were investigated from January 1973 to November 2013. The study area was divided into 69 sub‐regions of similar size each in the shape of an igloo brick. The data were filtered with a second‐order autoregressive process to remove autocorrelation. Two sub‐regions did not have sufficient data due to substantial numbers of missing values. Factor analysis was then applied to the remaining 67 sub‐regions and was used to classify regions with similar temperature changes. As a result, 63 sub‐regions could be classified based on 12 factors but 4 sub‐regions could not be grouped due to uniqueness. The temperatures for each group of sub‐regions were found to increase during 1973–2013. The largest temperature increases of 0.19 °C/decade were found in northern and southern Siberia and part of the Arctic Ocean. In northern Canada, Alaska, the northern Pacific Ocean and eastern Siberia the temperatures increased by at least 0.16 °C/decade. In Iceland, Norway, Sweden and part of the Pacific and Arctic Oceans the temperature increased by around 0.15 °C/decade. In northeastern Canada, Greenland and its surrounding Atlantic Ocean and the Arctic Ocean the temperature increased by about 0.15 °C/decade.