The link between North Atlantic tropical cyclones and ENSO in seasonal forecasts
Abstract This study assesses the ability of six European seasonal forecast models to simulate the observed teleconnection between ENSO and tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic. While the models generally capture the basin‐wide observed link, its magnitude is overestimated in all forecast...
| Published in: | Atmospheric Science Letters |
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| Main Authors: | , , , , |
| Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2023
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/asl.1190 https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/asl.1190 |
| Summary: | Abstract This study assesses the ability of six European seasonal forecast models to simulate the observed teleconnection between ENSO and tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic. While the models generally capture the basin‐wide observed link, its magnitude is overestimated in all forecast models compared to reanalysis. Furthermore, the ENSO‐TC relationship in the Caribbean is poorly simulated. It is shown that incorrect forecasting of wind shear appears to affect the representation of the teleconnection in some models, however it is not a completely sufficient explanation for the overestimation of the link. |
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