Climate impacts on the Gulf of Maine ecosystem

The Gulf of Maine has recently experienced its warmest 5-year period (2015–2020) in the instrumental record. This warming was associated with a decline in the signature subarctic zooplankton species, Calanus finmarchicus. The temperature changes have also led to impacts on commercial species such as...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene
Main Authors: Pershing, Andrew J., Alexander, Michael A., Brady, Damian C., Brickman, David, Curchitser, Enrique N., Diamond, Antony W., McClenachan, Loren, Mills, Katherine E., Nichols, Owen C., Pendleton, Daniel E., Record, Nicholas R., Scott, James D., Staudinger, Michelle D., Wang, Yanjun
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: University of California Press 2021
Subjects:
atlantic cod
Calanus finmarchicus
Eubalaena glacialis
fratercula
Fratercula arctica
Gadus morhua
Subarctic
Zooplankton
Online Access:http://dx.doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2020.00076
http://online.ucpress.edu/elementa/article-pdf/doi/10.1525/elementa.2020.00076/477386/elementa.2020.00076.pdf
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Summary:The Gulf of Maine has recently experienced its warmest 5-year period (2015–2020) in the instrumental record. This warming was associated with a decline in the signature subarctic zooplankton species, Calanus finmarchicus. The temperature changes have also led to impacts on commercial species such as Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and American lobster (Homarus americanus) and protected species including Atlantic puffins (Fratercula arctica) and northern right whales (Eubalaena glacialis). The recent period also saw a decline in Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) recruitment and an increase in novel harmful algal species, although these have not been attributed to the recent warming. Here, we use an ensemble of numerical ocean models to characterize expected ocean conditions in the middle of this century. Under the high CO2 emissions scenario (RCP8.5), the average temperature in the Gulf of Maine is expected to increase 1.1°C to 2.4°C relative to the 1976–2005 average. Surface salinity is expected to decrease, leading to enhanced water column stratification. These physical changes are likely to lead to additional declines in subarctic species including C. finmarchicus, American lobster, and Atlantic cod and an increase in temperate species. The ecosystem changes have already impacted human communities through altered delivery of ecosystem services derived from the marine environment. Continued warming is expected to lead to a loss of heritage, changes in culture, and the necessity for adaptation.

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