Large-scale emergence of regional changes in year-to-year temperature variability by the end of the 21st century

• Published in: Nature Communications
• Main Authors: Olonscheck, Dirk, Schurer, Andrew P., Lücke, Lucie, Hegerl, Gabriele C.
• Other Authors: Alexander von Humboldt-Stiftung, EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme, RCUK | Natural Environment Research Council
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Springer Science and Business Media LLC 2021
• Subjects: General Physics and Astronomy; General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology; General Chemistry; Sea ice
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-27515-x; https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-27515-x.pdf; https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-27515-x

Abstract Global warming is expected to not only impact mean temperatures but also temperature variability, substantially altering climate extremes. Here we show that human-caused changes in internal year-to-year temperature variability are expected to emerge from the unforced range by the end of the 21 st century across climate model initial-condition large ensembles forced with a strong global warming scenario. Different simulated changes in globally averaged regional temperature variability between models can be explained by a trade-off between strong increases in variability on tropical land and substantial decreases in high latitudes, both shown by most models. This latitudinal pattern of temperature variability change is consistent with loss of sea ice in high latitudes and changes in vegetation cover in the tropics. Instrumental records are broadly in line with this emerging pattern, but have data gaps in key regions. Paleoclimate proxy reconstructions support the simulated magnitude and distribution of temperature variability. Our findings strengthen the need for urgent mitigation to avoid unprecedented changes in temperature variability.