Uncertainties in Long-Term Twenty-First Century Process-Based Coastal Sea-Level Projections

Abstract Many processes affect sea level near the coast. In this paper, we discuss the major uncertainties in coastal sea-level projections from a process-based perspective, at different spatial and temporal scales, and provide an outlook on how these uncertainties may be reduced. Uncertainty in cen...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Surveys in Geophysics
Main Authors: van de Wal, R. S. W., Zhang, X., Minobe, S., Jevrejeva, S., Riva, R. E. M., Little, C., Richter, K., Palmer, M. D.
Other Authors: Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek, Österreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Springer Science and Business Media LLC 2019
Subjects:
Geochemistry and Petrology
Geophysics
Ice Sheet
Online Access:http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10712-019-09575-3
http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10712-019-09575-3.pdf
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10712-019-09575-3/fulltext.html
Description
Summary:Abstract Many processes affect sea level near the coast. In this paper, we discuss the major uncertainties in coastal sea-level projections from a process-based perspective, at different spatial and temporal scales, and provide an outlook on how these uncertainties may be reduced. Uncertainty in centennial global sea-level rise is dominated by the ice sheet contributions. Geographical variations in projected sea-level change arise mainly from dynamical patterns in the ocean response and other geophysical processes. Finally, the uncertainties in the short-duration extreme sea-level events are controlled by near coastal processes, storms and tides.

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