Exploring an ensemble approach to estimating skill in multiproxy palaeoclimate reconstructions
This paper describes an approach that gives an estimate of the reconstructive skill of a proxy-based palaeoclimatological reconstruction. Uncertainties in proxy data are likely to be reflected in variations in reconstructive skill of the proxy-based climatic reconstructions. The method is based on m...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0959683607073294 http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0959683607073294 |
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crsagepubl:10.1177/0959683607073294 2023-05-15T17:32:30+02:00 Exploring an ensemble approach to estimating skill in multiproxy palaeoclimate reconstructions van der Schrier, G. Osborn, T. J. Briffa, K. R. Cook, E. R. 2007 http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0959683607073294 http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0959683607073294 en eng SAGE Publications http://journals.sagepub.com/page/policies/text-and-data-mining-license The Holocene volume 17, issue 1, page 119-129 ISSN 0959-6836 1477-0911 Paleontology Earth-Surface Processes Ecology Archeology Global and Planetary Change journal-article 2007 crsagepubl https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683607073294 2022-04-14T04:42:34Z This paper describes an approach that gives an estimate of the reconstructive skill of a proxy-based palaeoclimatological reconstruction. Uncertainties in proxy data are likely to be reflected in variations in reconstructive skill of the proxy-based climatic reconstructions. The method is based on making an ensemble of reconstructions, providing a probability distribution of each reconstruction estimate. The relative breadth of the distribution for a particular reconstructed value should give an indication of the reconstructive skill. The ensemble reconstruction approach draws on the ensemble prediction system as used for operational weather forecasting. The ensemble reconstruction approach is tested using a recent multiproxy reconstruction of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. It is shown that the ensemble approach provides a representation of the degree of certainty associated with the reconstructed NAO-index values. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation SAGE Publications (via Crossref) The Holocene 17 1 119 129 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
SAGE Publications (via Crossref) |
op_collection_id |
crsagepubl |
language |
English |
topic |
Paleontology Earth-Surface Processes Ecology Archeology Global and Planetary Change |
spellingShingle |
Paleontology Earth-Surface Processes Ecology Archeology Global and Planetary Change van der Schrier, G. Osborn, T. J. Briffa, K. R. Cook, E. R. Exploring an ensemble approach to estimating skill in multiproxy palaeoclimate reconstructions |
topic_facet |
Paleontology Earth-Surface Processes Ecology Archeology Global and Planetary Change |
description |
This paper describes an approach that gives an estimate of the reconstructive skill of a proxy-based palaeoclimatological reconstruction. Uncertainties in proxy data are likely to be reflected in variations in reconstructive skill of the proxy-based climatic reconstructions. The method is based on making an ensemble of reconstructions, providing a probability distribution of each reconstruction estimate. The relative breadth of the distribution for a particular reconstructed value should give an indication of the reconstructive skill. The ensemble reconstruction approach draws on the ensemble prediction system as used for operational weather forecasting. The ensemble reconstruction approach is tested using a recent multiproxy reconstruction of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. It is shown that the ensemble approach provides a representation of the degree of certainty associated with the reconstructed NAO-index values. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
van der Schrier, G. Osborn, T. J. Briffa, K. R. Cook, E. R. |
author_facet |
van der Schrier, G. Osborn, T. J. Briffa, K. R. Cook, E. R. |
author_sort |
van der Schrier, G. |
title |
Exploring an ensemble approach to estimating skill in multiproxy palaeoclimate reconstructions |
title_short |
Exploring an ensemble approach to estimating skill in multiproxy palaeoclimate reconstructions |
title_full |
Exploring an ensemble approach to estimating skill in multiproxy palaeoclimate reconstructions |
title_fullStr |
Exploring an ensemble approach to estimating skill in multiproxy palaeoclimate reconstructions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Exploring an ensemble approach to estimating skill in multiproxy palaeoclimate reconstructions |
title_sort |
exploring an ensemble approach to estimating skill in multiproxy palaeoclimate reconstructions |
publisher |
SAGE Publications |
publishDate |
2007 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0959683607073294 http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0959683607073294 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
The Holocene volume 17, issue 1, page 119-129 ISSN 0959-6836 1477-0911 |
op_rights |
http://journals.sagepub.com/page/policies/text-and-data-mining-license |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683607073294 |
container_title |
The Holocene |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
119 |
op_container_end_page |
129 |
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1766130664795537408 |