Exploring an ensemble approach to estimating skill in multiproxy palaeoclimate reconstructions

This paper describes an approach that gives an estimate of the reconstructive skill of a proxy-based palaeoclimatological reconstruction. Uncertainties in proxy data are likely to be reflected in variations in reconstructive skill of the proxy-based climatic reconstructions. The method is based on m...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The Holocene
Main Authors: van der Schrier, G., Osborn, T. J., Briffa, K. R., Cook, E. R.
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: SAGE Publications 2007
Subjects:
Paleontology
Earth-Surface Processes
Ecology
Archeology
Global and Planetary Change
North Atlantic
North Atlantic oscillation
Online Access:http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0959683607073294
http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0959683607073294
Description
Summary:This paper describes an approach that gives an estimate of the reconstructive skill of a proxy-based palaeoclimatological reconstruction. Uncertainties in proxy data are likely to be reflected in variations in reconstructive skill of the proxy-based climatic reconstructions. The method is based on making an ensemble of reconstructions, providing a probability distribution of each reconstruction estimate. The relative breadth of the distribution for a particular reconstructed value should give an indication of the reconstructive skill. The ensemble reconstruction approach draws on the ensemble prediction system as used for operational weather forecasting. The ensemble reconstruction approach is tested using a recent multiproxy reconstruction of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. It is shown that the ensemble approach provides a representation of the degree of certainty associated with the reconstructed NAO-index values.

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