Modelling the mating system of polar bears: a mechanistic approach to the Allee effect
Allee effects may render exploited animal populations extinction prone, but empirical data are often lacking to describe the circumstances leading to an Allee effect. Arbitrary assumptions regarding Allee effects could lead to erroneous management decisions so that predictive modelling approaches ar...
Published in: | Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences |
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2007.1307 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rspb.2007.1307 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rspb.2007.1307 |
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crroyalsociety:10.1098/rspb.2007.1307 2024-06-02T08:10:01+00:00 Modelling the mating system of polar bears: a mechanistic approach to the Allee effect Molnár, Péter K Derocher, Andrew E Lewis, Mark A Taylor, Mitchell K 2007 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2007.1307 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rspb.2007.1307 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rspb.2007.1307 en eng The Royal Society https://royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/data-sharing-mining/ Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences volume 275, issue 1631, page 217-226 ISSN 0962-8452 1471-2954 journal-article 2007 crroyalsociety https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2007.1307 2024-05-07T14:16:57Z Allee effects may render exploited animal populations extinction prone, but empirical data are often lacking to describe the circumstances leading to an Allee effect. Arbitrary assumptions regarding Allee effects could lead to erroneous management decisions so that predictive modelling approaches are needed that identify the circumstances leading to an Allee effect before such a scenario occurs. We present a predictive approach of Allee effects for polar bears where low population densities, an unpredictable habitat and harvest-depleted male populations result in infrequent mating encounters. We develop a mechanistic model for the polar bear mating system that predicts the proportion of fertilized females at the end of the mating season given population density and operational sex ratio. The model is parametrized using pairing data from Lancaster Sound, Canada, and describes the observed pairing dynamics well. Female mating success is shown to be a nonlinear function of the operational sex ratio, so that a sudden and rapid reproductive collapse could occur if males are severely depleted. The operational sex ratio where an Allee effect is expected is dependent on population density. We focus on the prediction of Allee effects in polar bears but our approach is also applicable to other species. Article in Journal/Newspaper Lancaster Sound polar bear The Royal Society Canada Lancaster Sound ENVELOPE(-83.999,-83.999,74.218,74.218) Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 275 1631 217 226 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
The Royal Society |
op_collection_id |
crroyalsociety |
language |
English |
description |
Allee effects may render exploited animal populations extinction prone, but empirical data are often lacking to describe the circumstances leading to an Allee effect. Arbitrary assumptions regarding Allee effects could lead to erroneous management decisions so that predictive modelling approaches are needed that identify the circumstances leading to an Allee effect before such a scenario occurs. We present a predictive approach of Allee effects for polar bears where low population densities, an unpredictable habitat and harvest-depleted male populations result in infrequent mating encounters. We develop a mechanistic model for the polar bear mating system that predicts the proportion of fertilized females at the end of the mating season given population density and operational sex ratio. The model is parametrized using pairing data from Lancaster Sound, Canada, and describes the observed pairing dynamics well. Female mating success is shown to be a nonlinear function of the operational sex ratio, so that a sudden and rapid reproductive collapse could occur if males are severely depleted. The operational sex ratio where an Allee effect is expected is dependent on population density. We focus on the prediction of Allee effects in polar bears but our approach is also applicable to other species. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Molnár, Péter K Derocher, Andrew E Lewis, Mark A Taylor, Mitchell K |
spellingShingle |
Molnár, Péter K Derocher, Andrew E Lewis, Mark A Taylor, Mitchell K Modelling the mating system of polar bears: a mechanistic approach to the Allee effect |
author_facet |
Molnár, Péter K Derocher, Andrew E Lewis, Mark A Taylor, Mitchell K |
author_sort |
Molnár, Péter K |
title |
Modelling the mating system of polar bears: a mechanistic approach to the Allee effect |
title_short |
Modelling the mating system of polar bears: a mechanistic approach to the Allee effect |
title_full |
Modelling the mating system of polar bears: a mechanistic approach to the Allee effect |
title_fullStr |
Modelling the mating system of polar bears: a mechanistic approach to the Allee effect |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modelling the mating system of polar bears: a mechanistic approach to the Allee effect |
title_sort |
modelling the mating system of polar bears: a mechanistic approach to the allee effect |
publisher |
The Royal Society |
publishDate |
2007 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2007.1307 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rspb.2007.1307 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rspb.2007.1307 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-83.999,-83.999,74.218,74.218) |
geographic |
Canada Lancaster Sound |
geographic_facet |
Canada Lancaster Sound |
genre |
Lancaster Sound polar bear |
genre_facet |
Lancaster Sound polar bear |
op_source |
Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences volume 275, issue 1631, page 217-226 ISSN 0962-8452 1471-2954 |
op_rights |
https://royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/data-sharing-mining/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2007.1307 |
container_title |
Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences |
container_volume |
275 |
container_issue |
1631 |
container_start_page |
217 |
op_container_end_page |
226 |
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1800755821792985088 |