| Summary: | Regional studies and activities related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and other oscillations, seasonal climate prediction, and agricultural impacts are in progress around the world (figure 7.1). Here we describe some regional impacts and programs in place that are entraining climate information into decision making. Elements of these activities include the definition of the agricultural or other targeted systems; exploration of the social, political, and cultural contexts; examination of the temporal and spatial patterns of physical and biological impacts related to ENSO; analysis of economic effects; development and testing of seasonal climate forecasts and their delivery; investigation of crop management and other adaptations leading to implementation of dynamic risk-management strategies; and the development and evaluation of programs. In northern Peru, El Niño events bring torrential rains and floods that damage crops by eroding slopes, silting valleys, and oversaturating soils. The precipitation regime of Chile is likely to be intensified as well when El Niño events occur (Meza et al., 2003). Downscaled seasonal climate forecasts and crop growth models have been used to evaluate the impact of ENSO and management responses on crops in the Andean highlands of Peru (Baigorria, 2007); and Meza (2007) combined stochastic modeling of meteorological variables, a simple soil crop algorithm, and a mathematical programming model to assess the value of ENSO information for irrigation in the Maipo River Basin, Chile. Central America, being a narrow strip of land tightly squeezed between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, is particularly influenced by major global climate variability systems, especially the El Nino–Southern Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation (AO; M. Campos and P. Ramirez, personal communication, 2007; Rosenzweig et al., 2007). El Niño events are associated with dry summers on the Pacific coast and wet summers on the Caribbean coast, while the opposite pattern is associated with La Niña. A ...
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