Prospects for Extended Range Outlooks
Abstract Forecast utility is a function of both skill and lead time. Seasonal hurricane forecasts of activity several years in advance have the potential for greater utility. Presently, lead time is about 9 months for seasonal forecasts issued in early December. However, as discussed earlier, annual...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Book Part |
| Language: | unknown |
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Oxford University PressNew York, NY
1999
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780195125085.003.0016 https://academic.oup.com/book/chapter-pdf/52435244/isbn-9780195125085-book-part-16.pdf |
| Summary: | Abstract Forecast utility is a function of both skill and lead time. Seasonal hurricane forecasts of activity several years in advance have the potential for greater utility. Presently, lead time is about 9 months for seasonal forecasts issued in early December. However, as discussed earlier, annual North Atlantic hurricane frequencies show preferred periods of oscillation on times ranging from months to years. This offers the possibility for extended-range seasonal forecasts. Assuming the past is a good indicator of the future, regularities in the time series can be exploited to make multi-season prognostications. |
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