History of Seasonal Hurricane Forecasting
Abstract Regional and global climate patterns determine the character of a hurricane season. Locally, warm sea-surface temperatures coupled with frequent vigorous tropical waves signal an active season. The development of a warm ENSO (see Chapter 10) over the central equatorial Pacific with its acco...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Book Part |
| Language: | unknown |
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Oxford University PressNew York, NY
1999
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| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780195125085.003.0013 https://academic.oup.com/book/chapter-pdf/52435239/isbn-9780195125085-book-part-13.pdf |
| Summary: | Abstract Regional and global climate patterns determine the character of a hurricane season. Locally, warm sea-surface temperatures coupled with frequent vigorous tropical waves signal an active season. The development of a warm ENSO (see Chapter 10) over the central equatorial Pacific with its accompanied global teleconnection patterns portend fewer hurricanes and a reduced threat of strikes to the United States. A systematic understanding of the linkages between climate and hurricanes provides a basis for forecasting. This chapter is a chronicle of some of the research contributions that have been made over the years toward our understanding of climate and hurricanes. It serves as a brief historical account of the contributions that led to the current seasonal forecast models of North Atlantic hurricane activity. The presentation follows the work of Hess and Elsner (1994b). |
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