| Summary: | Chapter 3 lays out the research design and explains why an unprecedented drop-off in polar ice in 2007 makes the Arctic an ideal natural laboratory to test Rent-Addiction Theory against competing explanations. All five of the Arctic littoral states experienced this exogenous shock at the same time and have potential offshore resources at stake. Observing how strongly each state responded to the shock by investing in projecting power to back its resource claims allows one to infer the underlying preferences and interests of these states. Comparing states’ behavior directly before and after the shock controls for slower-moving and potentially confounding factors, such as nationalism, status-seeking, and relative power. This chapter also describes how key variables of interest such as economic structure, domestic political institutions, and exclusionary foreign policy are operationalized.
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