Estimates of excess mortality for the five Nordic countries during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020−2021
Abstract Background Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic is of major scientific and political interest. Methods We critically reviewed different estimates of all-cause excess mortality for the five Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden), which have been much studied...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyac204 https://academic.oup.com/ije/article-pdf/51/6/1722/49334249/dyac204.pdf |
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croxfordunivpr:10.1093/ije/dyac204 2024-09-30T14:37:25+00:00 Estimates of excess mortality for the five Nordic countries during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020−2021 Kepp, Kasper P Björk, Jonas Kontis, Vasilis Parks, Robbie M Bæk, Kristoffer T Emilsson, Louise Lallukka, Tea Swedish Research Council Sweden’s Innovation Agency NIH 2022 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyac204 https://academic.oup.com/ije/article-pdf/51/6/1722/49334249/dyac204.pdf en eng Oxford University Press (OUP) https://academic.oup.com/pages/standard-publication-reuse-rights International Journal of Epidemiology volume 51, issue 6, page 1722-1732 ISSN 0300-5771 1464-3685 journal-article 2022 croxfordunivpr https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyac204 2024-09-17T04:27:20Z Abstract Background Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic is of major scientific and political interest. Methods We critically reviewed different estimates of all-cause excess mortality for the five Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden), which have been much studied during the COVID-19 pandemic, using the latest register data to discuss uncertainties and implications. Results We show using back-calculation of expected deaths from Nordic all-cause deaths that the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model is a clear outlier in the compared estimates and likely substantially overestimates excess mortality of Finland and Denmark, and probably Sweden. Our review suggests a range of total Nordic excess deaths of perhaps 15 000–20 000, but results are sensitive to assumptions in the models as shown. Conclusions We document substantial heterogeneity and uncertainty in estimates of excess mortality. All estimates should be taken with caution in their interpretation as they miss detailed account of demographics, such as changes in the age group populations over the study period. Article in Journal/Newspaper Iceland Oxford University Press Norway International Journal of Epidemiology 51 6 1722 1732 |
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Open Polar |
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Oxford University Press |
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croxfordunivpr |
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English |
description |
Abstract Background Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic is of major scientific and political interest. Methods We critically reviewed different estimates of all-cause excess mortality for the five Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden), which have been much studied during the COVID-19 pandemic, using the latest register data to discuss uncertainties and implications. Results We show using back-calculation of expected deaths from Nordic all-cause deaths that the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model is a clear outlier in the compared estimates and likely substantially overestimates excess mortality of Finland and Denmark, and probably Sweden. Our review suggests a range of total Nordic excess deaths of perhaps 15 000–20 000, but results are sensitive to assumptions in the models as shown. Conclusions We document substantial heterogeneity and uncertainty in estimates of excess mortality. All estimates should be taken with caution in their interpretation as they miss detailed account of demographics, such as changes in the age group populations over the study period. |
author2 |
Swedish Research Council Sweden’s Innovation Agency NIH |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kepp, Kasper P Björk, Jonas Kontis, Vasilis Parks, Robbie M Bæk, Kristoffer T Emilsson, Louise Lallukka, Tea |
spellingShingle |
Kepp, Kasper P Björk, Jonas Kontis, Vasilis Parks, Robbie M Bæk, Kristoffer T Emilsson, Louise Lallukka, Tea Estimates of excess mortality for the five Nordic countries during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020−2021 |
author_facet |
Kepp, Kasper P Björk, Jonas Kontis, Vasilis Parks, Robbie M Bæk, Kristoffer T Emilsson, Louise Lallukka, Tea |
author_sort |
Kepp, Kasper P |
title |
Estimates of excess mortality for the five Nordic countries during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020−2021 |
title_short |
Estimates of excess mortality for the five Nordic countries during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020−2021 |
title_full |
Estimates of excess mortality for the five Nordic countries during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020−2021 |
title_fullStr |
Estimates of excess mortality for the five Nordic countries during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020−2021 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Estimates of excess mortality for the five Nordic countries during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020−2021 |
title_sort |
estimates of excess mortality for the five nordic countries during the covid-19 pandemic 2020−2021 |
publisher |
Oxford University Press (OUP) |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyac204 https://academic.oup.com/ije/article-pdf/51/6/1722/49334249/dyac204.pdf |
geographic |
Norway |
geographic_facet |
Norway |
genre |
Iceland |
genre_facet |
Iceland |
op_source |
International Journal of Epidemiology volume 51, issue 6, page 1722-1732 ISSN 0300-5771 1464-3685 |
op_rights |
https://academic.oup.com/pages/standard-publication-reuse-rights |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyac204 |
container_title |
International Journal of Epidemiology |
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51 |
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6 |
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1722 |
op_container_end_page |
1732 |
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1811640269437665280 |