The use of linear mixed effects models to investigate local adaptation in marine fish subpopulations: case study, changing spawning times of common sole (Solea solea)

• Published in: ICES Journal of Marine Science
• Main Authors: Fincham, Jennifer I, Barry, Jon
• Other Authors: Bartolino, Valerio
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Oxford University Press (OUP) 2019
• Subjects: Ecology; Aquatic Science; Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics; Oceanography; North East Atlantic
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsz175; http://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/76/7/2297/31679443/fsz175.pdf

Abstract Populations along environmental gradients have the potential to adapt to their own local environments. It is important to understand these adaptations in fisheries stocks to fully inform fisheries management strategies. With this is mind, sea temperatures are an important cue in timing for many marine species, including sole in the North-East Atlantic Ocean. We used spawning data and modelled sea surface temperature (SST) data from sole subpopulations to examine the possibility of local adaptation of their spawning times to rising temperature. Climate window analysis was used, in a linear mixed model using mean spawning week and SST, to investigate statistically significant differences between subpopulations of sole. There was no evidence of local adaptation to changing temperatures for these subpopulations. This suggests that their spawning-time reaction to changing temperatures is currently due to their subpopulation’s mean plasticity. Using climate window analysis and modelled temperature data we have demonstrated a method of examining spawning changes in marine populations along a temperature gradient. Recruitment and spawning success are key elements of fisheries population models which contribute to fisheries management. Further understanding of the influence of temperature on recruitment will help inform future modelling.