The combined effects of warming, ocean acidification, and fishing on the northeast Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua ) in the Barents Sea

Abstract With a biomass of ∼4 million tonnes, and annual catches of 900 000 tonnes, the northeast Atlantic (NEA) cod stock in the Barents Sea is the world’s largest. Scientists have been trying to explain the variability in recruitment of this stock for over 100 years, in particular connecting it to...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:ICES Journal of Marine Science
Main Authors: Hansen, Cecilie, Hjøllo, Solfrid Sætre, Skogen, Morten D, Mousing, Erik Askov, Skern-Mauritzen, Mette, Howell, Daniel, Ottersen, Geir, Browman, Howard I
Other Authors: Bartolino, Valerio, Institute of Marine Research, Fram Centre
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Oxford University Press (OUP) 2024
Subjects:
Ecology
Aquatic Science
Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
Oceanography
Barents Sea
atlantic cod
Gadus morhua
Northeast Atlantic
Ocean acidification
Online Access:http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsae042
https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/advance-article-pdf/doi/10.1093/icesjms/fsae042/57220954/fsae042.pdf
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Summary:Abstract With a biomass of ∼4 million tonnes, and annual catches of 900 000 tonnes, the northeast Atlantic (NEA) cod stock in the Barents Sea is the world’s largest. Scientists have been trying to explain the variability in recruitment of this stock for over 100 years, in particular connecting it to spawning stock biomass and environmental factors such as temperature. It has been suggested that the combination of ocean acidification and global warming will lead to a significant decrease in the spawning stock biomass and an eventual (end of this century) collapse of the NEA cod stock in the Barents Sea. We show that a temperature- and OA-driven decline in recruits will likely lead to a smaller cod stock, but not to a collapse. Instead, the level of fishing pressure and, not least, the choice of the recruitment function applied in simulations and how it relates to temperature, is extremely important when making such forecasts. Applying a non-linear relationship between temperature and spawning stock biomass—as has been done in studies that predict a collapse of the NEA cod stock—does not improve accuracy and, in addition, adds a large decrease in number of recruits that is not biologically supported.

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