Existential threats and systemic shocks

• Main Author: McGuire, Bill
• Format: Book Part
• Language: unknown
• Published: Oxford University PressOxford 2024
• Subjects: North Atlantic
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/actrade/9780192874535.003.0006; https://academic.oup.com/book/55990/chapter/440094475

Abstract Global geophysical events have the potential to wipe out not only our civilization, but the whole of humanity. Fortunately, only one event would be up to the job, a c.10 kilometre wide asteroid impact like the one that terminated the dinosaurs. At the moment, nothing like this is on the cards, although there are thousands of Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs), some with the potential to bring about a cosmic winter and global famine if they did hit us. Most Potentially Hazardous Objects (PHOs) are being tracked, so it looks as if we are okay for now. There are, however, other geophysical events that could seriously impact global society and its economy. These include a volcanic super-eruption capable of bringing a volcanic winter lasting years, and a North Atlantic mega-tsunami caused by a future Canary Island volcano collapse. A so-called strategic earthquake, striking at one of the global command and control centres—notably Tokyo, New York, or the San Francisco region—would also have the potential to bring the global economy to its knees, at least temporally. While considering such threats, however, it is critical that we never forget that we are already at the centre of a global geophysical event—climate breakdown brought about by global heating arising from humankind’s carbon-polluting activities. It is now practically impossible for us to stay this side of a 1.5°C global average temperature rise (since pre-industrial times), so that all-pervasive climate change that will affect everyone and insinuate itself into every aspect of our lives is now all but certain.