On the observed connection between Arctic sea ice and Eurasian snow in relation to the winter North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract Sea ice concentration (SIC) in the eastern Arctic and snow cover extent (SCE) over central Eurasia in late autumn have been proposed as potential predictors of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Here, maximum covariance analysis is used to further investigate the links between aut...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Environmental Research Letters
Main Authors: Santolaria-Otín, María, García-Serrano, Javier, Ménégoz, Martin, Bech, Joan
Other Authors: Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Institut des Geosciences de l’Environnement
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:unknown
Published: IOP Publishing 2020
Subjects:
Arctic
North Atlantic
North Atlantic oscillation
Sea ice
Online Access:http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abad57
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abad57
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abad57/pdf
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Summary:Abstract Sea ice concentration (SIC) in the eastern Arctic and snow cover extent (SCE) over central Eurasia in late autumn have been proposed as potential predictors of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Here, maximum covariance analysis is used to further investigate the links between autumn SIC in the Barents-Kara Seas (BK) and SCE over Eurasia (EUR) with winter sea level pressure (SLP) in the North Atlantic-European region over 1979-2019. As shown by previous studies, the most significant covariability mode of SIC/BK is found for November. Similarly, the covariability with SCE/EUR is only statistically significant for November, not for October. Changes in temperature, specific humidity, SIC/BK and SCE/EUR in November are associated with a circulation anomaly over the Ural-Siberian region that appears as a precursor of the winter NAO; where the advection of climatological temperature/humidity by the anomalous flow is related to SCE/EUR and SIC/BK anomalies.

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