Emerging Skill in Multi-Year Prediction of the Indian Ocean Dipole
The Indian Ocean Dipole is a leading phenomenon of climate variability in the tropics, which affects the global climate. However, the best lead prediction skill for the Indian Ocean Dipole, until recently, has been limited to ~6 months before the occurrence of the event. Here, we show that multi-yea...
| Published in: | Frontiers in Climate |
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| Main Authors: | , , , |
| Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
| Language: | unknown |
| Published: |
Frontiers Media SA
2021
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.736759 https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2021.736759/full |
| Summary: | The Indian Ocean Dipole is a leading phenomenon of climate variability in the tropics, which affects the global climate. However, the best lead prediction skill for the Indian Ocean Dipole, until recently, has been limited to ~6 months before the occurrence of the event. Here, we show that multi-year prediction has made considerable advancement such that, for the first time, two general circulation models have significant prediction skills for the Indian Ocean Dipole for at least 2 years after initialization. This skill is present despite ENSO having a lead prediction skill of only 1 year. Our analysis of observed/reanalyzed ocean datasets shows that the source of this multi-year predictability lies in sub-surface signals that propagate from the Southern Ocean into the Indian Ocean. Prediction skill for a prominent climate driver like the Indian Ocean Dipole has wide-ranging benefits for climate science and society. |
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