Price cap will bite into Russian oil output in 2023

Significance Russia has lost almost all its customers in Europe, which bought 48% of its crude exports by volume last year. To compensate, it has been sending more crude to Asian markets in recent months, but this is costly, time-consuming and now complicated by the price cap. Impacts The OPEC+ coal...

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Published: Emerald 2022
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Online Access:http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/oxan-db274825
https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/OXAN-DB274825/full/xml
https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/OXAN-DB274825/full/html
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Summary:Significance Russia has lost almost all its customers in Europe, which bought 48% of its crude exports by volume last year. To compensate, it has been sending more crude to Asian markets in recent months, but this is costly, time-consuming and now complicated by the price cap. Impacts The OPEC+ coalition is likely to maintain tight supply to support oil prices. Lower oil revenues will put pressure on Russia's current account and the ruble. Oil from the Sakhalin-2 project is exempted from the price cap mechanism; Sakhalin-1 could also be granted an exemption. Kazakh oil exports sharing pipeline infrastructure with Russia may face technical and bureaucratic impediments.