Estimating population status under conditions of uncertainty: the Ross seal in East Antarctica

• Published in: Antarctic Science
• Main Authors: Southwell, Colin J., Paxton, Charles G.M., Borchers, David L., Boveng, Peter L., Nordøy, Erling S., Blix, Arnoldus Schytte, De La Mare, William K.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Cambridge University Press (CUP) 2008
• Subjects: Geology; Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics; Oceanography; Antarc*; Antarctic; Antarctic Science; Antarctica; East Antarctica; Ross Seal
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0954102007000879; https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0954102007000879

Abstract The Ross seal ( Ommatophoca rossii ) is the least studied of the Antarctic ice-breeding phocids. In particular, estimating the population status of the Ross seal has proved extremely difficult. The Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty currently designates the Ross seal as a ‘Specially Protected Species’, contrasting with the IUCN's classification of ‘Least Concern’. As part of a review of the Ross seal's classification under the Protocol, a survey was undertaken in 1999/2000 to estimate the status of the Ross seal population in the pack ice off East Antarctica between 64–150°E. Shipboard and aerial sighting surveys were carried out along 9476 km of transect to estimate the density of Ross seals hauled out on the ice, and satellite dive recorders deployed on a sample of Ross seals to estimate the proportion of time spent on the ice. The survey design and analysis addressed the many sources of uncertainty in estimating the abundance of this species in an effort to provide a range of best and plausible estimates. Best estimates of abundance in the survey region ranged from 41 300–55 900 seals. Limits on plausible estimates ranged from 20 500 (lower 2.5 percentile) to 226 600 (upper 97.5 percentile).