Numerical avalanche prediction: Kootenay Pass, British Columbia, Canada

Abstract A numerical avalanche-prediction scheme was developed for highway applications at Kootenay Pass, British Columbia. The model features parametric discriminant analysis using Bayesian statistics to predict avalanche occurrences. Cluster techniques are then employed in discriminant space to an...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of Glaciology
Main Authors: Mcclung, D. M., Tweedy, John
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Cambridge University Press (CUP) 1994
Subjects:
Earth-Surface Processes
Canada
British Columbia
Journal of Glaciology
Online Access:http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0022143000007437
https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0022143000007437
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Summary:Abstract A numerical avalanche-prediction scheme was developed for highway applications at Kootenay Pass, British Columbia. The model features parametric discriminant analysis using Bayesian statistics to predict avalanche occurrences. Cluster techniques are then employed in discriminant space to analyze avalanche occurrences by the method of nearest neighbours. Extensive numerical testing of the model using an historical data base indicates that prediction accuracy may be 70% or better for both avalanche and non-avalanche time intervals.

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