Avalanche risk mapping by simulation

Abstract In this paper we present a simulation approach to mapping avalanche risk with application to settlements in Iceland. Two simulation models are developed to calculate the probability of avalanches travelling a certain distance, and of the flow being a specific width. These two simulation mod...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of Glaciology
Main Authors: Keylock, Christopher J., McClung, David M., Magnússon, Magnús Már
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Cambridge University Press (CUP) 1999
Subjects:
Online Access:http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0022143000001805
https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0022143000001805
Description
Summary:Abstract In this paper we present a simulation approach to mapping avalanche risk with application to settlements in Iceland. Two simulation models are developed to calculate the probability of avalanches travelling a certain distance, and of the flow being a specific width. These two simulation models, in combination with knowledge of the average frequency of avalanche occurrence, the variability in avalanche direction and the degree of loss caused by an avalanche, permit risk values to be determined for the areas of concern.