The influence of realistic 3D mantle viscosity on Antarctica’s contribution to future global sea levels

The response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) to climate change is the largest uncertainty in projecting future sea level. The impact of three-dimensional (3D) Earth structure on the AIS and future global sea levels is assessed here by coupling a global glacial isostatic adjustment model incorporati...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Science Advances
Main Authors: Gomez, Natalya, Yousefi, Maryam, Pollard, David, DeConto, Robert M., Sadai, Shaina, Lloyd, Andrew, Nyblade, Andrew, Wiens, Douglas A., Aster, Richard C., Wilson, Terry
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) 2024
Subjects:
Antarctic
The Antarctic
Antarc*
Ice Sheet
Online Access:http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adn1470
https://www.science.org/doi/pdf/10.1126/sciadv.adn1470
Description
Summary:The response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) to climate change is the largest uncertainty in projecting future sea level. The impact of three-dimensional (3D) Earth structure on the AIS and future global sea levels is assessed here by coupling a global glacial isostatic adjustment model incorporating 3D Earth structure to a dynamic ice-sheet model. We show that including 3D viscous effects produces rapid uplift in marine sectors and reduces projected ice loss for low greenhouse gas emission scenarios, lowering Antarctica’s contribution to global sea level in the coming centuries by up to ~40%. Under high-emission scenarios, ice retreat outpaces uplift, and sea-level rise is amplified by water expulsion from Antarctic marine areas.

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