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Jenseits von MOMA, vor Beyeler

by Flitsch, Mareile
Published 2010

t lo wnegn -t tieertmhicnecnrteuarsyei ( nFp ig re u c re ip i 2 ta .6 ti ) o , n , btuhtebpe ro ca buasbe il it oyfoafm ev o id deenl ce priosjn ec ottioynest conclusive. Some coupled climate ddirfofu er gehntt , f m or eatshueretdwo in paeb ri sood lu s. teArasiinm fa illlaraim nc oruen as ts e , iinst im opbae ct on drought in in sdoim ca e te patrh ts atofatnheaw nt ohrrlodpiosg li ekneilcyA ra u in sfta ra ll l ia f o in rtahegl iven state of evident in the twenty-first century. This can 1996b). ast twenty-five EyN ea S rs O ( N is ic hsoelelnseotvaelr . p ar aitstee rn fr somd ire cchtalnyge fo s rc iend th beyacthm an ogsepsheirn ic gcrierecnuh la otu io sne fou Inndf the N gases and other pollutants, possible changes in the affect th oertcro op hoerrtehntAm tl ualn ti tic, new evidence has been behaviour of ENSO (for which the evidence is Allen 1997). P ic o a te lnatn ia dlem xt arn at nruoaplicvaalrioac ti e ons in SS echanisms for asnuc ( hSu va tt roTn that iati aonndsd co ir netcrtadiincftloureyncaetporfesweanrtm ), in ogrm on er etlhye be su ca rf uasceeowfattheerN are orb th ei nAgtf la onutn ic d ( s G ea r ot szunre fa rceeta te l. m1p9e9r8a ) tu . rVe ar biin at vioolnvsinignr in al is ceraenac , gse. In th iv ein in graanine latter situation, given no or little Arctic regions have also long been su ifnaclrl, eassuemdm te enrdseoniclymtooisdtruoruegdhetf . icFir ts o m ca nam in o tr d ig euh in as gbeeveindefnocuendofthaatchoausplse ig dnioscpeeacnt -ed. Recently, ‘meteorological drought’ perspective, comb ficant aptom te onstp ia hletroeseyxspteecm te a d ti cianlc ly re raesd es u c in e p th oepu ra la in ti f o al n l , dseufc ic hiecnhcayng in eesdcw ou it lhda sc ff a e le cst ( t D he e lw cl o im rth at eeto al f . E 19 urope on multidecadal time at which society becomes stressed by the atshsroecsihao te ld dvCahra ia ntg io et al. (1997) have 9 id 7 e ) n . tIin fi e th dedtercoapdiaclaltiAmte la sncta ic le , p ag o r...

Published 2016

T cu im rre e n tl Sycahleeasd ) qu aas rte wreeldlaatst he thLeammounltt -i D na oth io e n rt aylEIaR rt I h , odtrhoeurgm ht ajporrem di ocd ti eolnprw ob il llem re s q . u T ir hee the resolution of hOabvseearnva im to p ry o rt oafntCcooluupm le bdiamoUdneilvecrosm ity p . onTehnet, sea lt ehfo fo urgthsp ex hteernes , io onntaogfloorbeaclasdto in mga , in boatnhdth th eseeaorcee dva saonlnacn es diantcm lu odse ­ m in acn lu ydeodf ( t C he a rs toyn pe 1s9o 98 f ) m . ethods discussed above are uomciesamnatacnhdbaettmwoesepnhtehree . fl Fuo xe rsmaatntyhearbeoaus, n d th atr io ie nsoofftthhee rep F li o ca rtE in NgSaOn , d c , ur in re nstom co eupclaesdesm , oidmep ls roav re in cgapoanb le thoefo of frtehaelsie st iwcillalnrde -q suuirrfeacse ig coupling may be ess eenatd ia dli . tiA on ll tshue cc ecsusrroefnetmgpein ri ecraalt / isotn at i o st ficcaolumpe le th dom ds o . dFeo ls rirnesptlain ca ctee , a model parameterisatio nificant improvements in the SST anomaly patterns in the equatorial Pacific that th ry elraeyqeu rs ir , ecd lo m ud osd , erlad im inasp ti oonf , saun rf dacceonpv ro ecce ti sosn es, bound­ have many characteristics in common with observed to a quick solution, but, ro g v iv eemnetnhtesiam re p o li rktealny . N to onye ie o ld flEeN ss SsO uc cceosm sf puolsiin te tsh . eCm ur orreentdim ffi ocduelltspa ro re blceomnso id ferreapblliy ­ imp Iatcsthoofud ld ronuogthbte , they are worth pursuing. ce of the p ca hteirnigcc th ir ecuslpae ti c o if n ic peav tt oelruntsioinnoafgtihve en SESNTSaOndepaitsm od oes . ­ tehxe prospects for im forgotten, however, that not all of However, it is precisely this problem that must be no ctlufsuilv ly eluynodnersse ta a n so pnraolvteidmde ro sc uag le hst . p A re l dictions reside solved. Just as the ‘average’ daily weather is rarely of climate variabilit d y , th th eem re u l is ti aanmnpulaelteo th doeucgahdawles ca dloeo ce bpsteuravleda , idthteo ‘ ucnadneornsitcaanl’ diEnNgS th Oan id aeauissefm ul orceonastcroun ct ­ e2x .1 is c t ) e nc aend -e th .g e . , sien the time series o vidence for its for prediction. To reach their full potential, coupled distributions of rai cnuflaalrl ( cFhiagnugrees2i . n2ftrhae in f p al rlob (F ab ig il uir ty eim nd oidveildsun al eepdas to t E be N S ab O le etpoisroedpe li scaa te ndt he th eeivroleuv ti ooln vi nogfnoefw co duep velopments in data an ). Very recently, extratropical atmospheric and ocean interactions. There is lesdommeoedveildsehnacveeosftd ar etaeld ys t is oaonpdeinn the accuracy The most optimistic expectation is that once that may have a somewhat c ad d a if lfv er aern ia t t io unpstihnisEN fie S ld O . cEoNuSpO le , d th m ey odw el i s ll bheavaeb le cotnoqhueelrped id etnhtei fy chaanld le npg re edio ct ftmheeasiun red by the ocean s character, as other modes of climate variability. This may include Zhang te ertananl. ua1l99 ti 7 m , eFoslc la al neusr fa ( cKeleteemmapne ra et tures, from links between ENSO and the climate system not yet are now beginning to fin ddeatanlu . m1b9e9r8 ) o . M al. od1e9 ll 9e6 rs , m dis ocdoevlesremdaiyntahiediimnpienrv fe ecsttiogbaste io rv nast io onfaplodsastiab . lIemcplriomvaetdem ab e il cih ty anoin sm th seinde th ca edN al otrothmaun lt d i tropic f potential modes that link ocean basins, such as ENSO-and Barnett 1996). There is adlescoad ev aalltiPm ac eifsiccaf le o r ( vari­ related variations of SST in the tropical North Atlantic, ENSO links to rainfall may come an id dengcoed th ep aetnsLoam ti e f rece In n tl aydddiistc io u n ss etdoboycE ea n n fi -e altdmaonsdphMea re y er c o ( u1p9l9 in 7 g ). , new nointutdheeo se fcE ul N ar S O va riitas bility in the str ding generations of models need to include realistic land-southern Europe (R eolpfe -le wes .g k . i , a in ndneonrg Ha th th lp e e rn an dAfm ri acga/ ­ rae tm ali oss ti pchm er oedeclosuopflitnhge . la Snudch su rifm ac peroavnedmie ts ntvsegientvao ti lovneaThheeadp , r m ed aiyctaalbsio lity of ENS rt 1987). and adequate descriptions based on observed data of in Northern Hevm ar iyspohnerdeecOa sp d , rail on ntgiem ( e to s Ba c a ls a a le fse , w e sp se eacs ia oln ly strheep re isne it nitaal tio ve nge in ta t m io ondesltsa te is . c W ur orrekn tl oynbleainndg -s m ur afiancleym 19 e9a5n ) s . (i I . n e ., additio meda et al. driven by the development...

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