The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979
In recent decades, the warming in the Arctic has been much faster than in the rest of the world, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. Numerous studies report that the Arctic is warming either twice, more than twice, or even three times as fast as the globe on average. Here we show, by using s...
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ftzenodo:oai:zenodo.org:8063478 2024-09-15T17:52:55+00:00 The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979 Rantanen, Mika Karpechko, Alexey Yu. Lipponen, Antti Nordling, Kalle Hyvärinen, Otto Ruosteenoja, Kimmo Vihma, Timo Laaksonen, Ari 2022-08-11 https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00498-3 eng eng Zenodo https://zenodo.org/communities/eu https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00498-3 oai:zenodo.org:8063478 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2022 ftzenodo https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00498-3 2024-07-26T17:43:41Z In recent decades, the warming in the Arctic has been much faster than in the rest of the world, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. Numerous studies report that the Arctic is warming either twice, more than twice, or even three times as fast as the globe on average. Here we show, by using several observational datasets which cover the Arctic region, that during the last 43 years the Arctic has been warming nearly four times faster than the globe, which is a higher ratio than generally reported in literature. We compared the observed Arctic amplification ratio with the ratio simulated by state-of-the-art climate models, and found that the observed four-fold warming ratio over 1979–2021 is an extremely rare occasion in the climate model simulations. The observed and simulated amplification ratios are more consistent with each other if calculated over a longer period; however the comparison is obscured by observational uncertainties before 1979. Our results indicate that the recent four-fold Arctic warming ratio is either an extremely unlikely event, or the climate models systematically tend to underestimate the amplification. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Zenodo Communications Earth & Environment 3 1 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Zenodo |
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ftzenodo |
language |
English |
description |
In recent decades, the warming in the Arctic has been much faster than in the rest of the world, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. Numerous studies report that the Arctic is warming either twice, more than twice, or even three times as fast as the globe on average. Here we show, by using several observational datasets which cover the Arctic region, that during the last 43 years the Arctic has been warming nearly four times faster than the globe, which is a higher ratio than generally reported in literature. We compared the observed Arctic amplification ratio with the ratio simulated by state-of-the-art climate models, and found that the observed four-fold warming ratio over 1979–2021 is an extremely rare occasion in the climate model simulations. The observed and simulated amplification ratios are more consistent with each other if calculated over a longer period; however the comparison is obscured by observational uncertainties before 1979. Our results indicate that the recent four-fold Arctic warming ratio is either an extremely unlikely event, or the climate models systematically tend to underestimate the amplification. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Rantanen, Mika Karpechko, Alexey Yu. Lipponen, Antti Nordling, Kalle Hyvärinen, Otto Ruosteenoja, Kimmo Vihma, Timo Laaksonen, Ari |
spellingShingle |
Rantanen, Mika Karpechko, Alexey Yu. Lipponen, Antti Nordling, Kalle Hyvärinen, Otto Ruosteenoja, Kimmo Vihma, Timo Laaksonen, Ari The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979 |
author_facet |
Rantanen, Mika Karpechko, Alexey Yu. Lipponen, Antti Nordling, Kalle Hyvärinen, Otto Ruosteenoja, Kimmo Vihma, Timo Laaksonen, Ari |
author_sort |
Rantanen, Mika |
title |
The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979 |
title_short |
The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979 |
title_full |
The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979 |
title_fullStr |
The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979 |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979 |
title_sort |
arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979 |
publisher |
Zenodo |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00498-3 |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_relation |
https://zenodo.org/communities/eu https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00498-3 oai:zenodo.org:8063478 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00498-3 |
container_title |
Communications Earth & Environment |
container_volume |
3 |
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1 |
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1810294924645498880 |