Climate-Change Refugia for the Bubblegum Coral Paragorgia arborea in the Northwest Atlantic
The large, habitat-forming bubblegum coral, Paragorgia arborea , is a vulnerable marine ecosystem indicator with an antitropical distribution. Dense aggregations of the species have been protected from bottom-contact fishing in the Scotian Shelf bioregion off Nova Scotia, Canada in the northwest Atl...
Published in: | Frontiers in Marine Science |
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.863693 |
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ftzenodo:oai:zenodo.org:7682821 2024-09-15T18:23:55+00:00 Climate-Change Refugia for the Bubblegum Coral Paragorgia arborea in the Northwest Atlantic Wang, Shuangqiang Murillo-Perez, Javier Kenchington, Ellen 2022-07-11 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.863693 unknown Zenodo https://zenodo.org/communities/iatlantic-project-collection https://zenodo.org/communities/eu https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.863693 oai:zenodo.org:7682821 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2022 ftzenodo https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.863693 2024-07-26T13:38:54Z The large, habitat-forming bubblegum coral, Paragorgia arborea , is a vulnerable marine ecosystem indicator with an antitropical distribution. Dense aggregations of the species have been protected from bottom-contact fishing in the Scotian Shelf bioregion off Nova Scotia, Canada in the northwest Atlantic Ocean. Recently, basin-scale habitat suitability ensemble modeling has projected an alarming loss of 99% of suitable habitat for this species across the North Atlantic by 2100. Here, a regional reassessment of the predicted distribution of this species in the bioregion, using both machine learning (random forest) and generalized additive model (GAM) frameworks, including projection to 2046−2065, was undertaken. Extrapolation diagnostics were applied to determine the degree to which the models projected into novel covariate space (i.e., extrapolation) in order to avoid erroneous inferences. The best predictors of the species’ distribution were a suite of temporally-invariant terrain variables that identified suitable habitat along the upper continental slope. Additional predictors, projected to vary with future ocean climatologies, identified areas of the upper slope in the eastern portion of the study area that will remain within suitable ranges for P. arborea at least through to the mid-century. Additionally, 3-D Lagrangian particle tracking simulations indicated potential for both connectivity among known occurrence sites and existing protected areas, and for colonization of unsurveyed areas predicted to have suitable habitat, from locations of known occurrence. These results showed that extirpation of this iconic species from the Scotian Shelf bioregion is unlikely over the next decades. Potential climate refugia were identified and results presented in the context of protected area network design properties of representativity, connectivity, adequacy, viability and resilience. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Northwest Atlantic Paragorgia arborea Zenodo Frontiers in Marine Science 9 |
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The large, habitat-forming bubblegum coral, Paragorgia arborea , is a vulnerable marine ecosystem indicator with an antitropical distribution. Dense aggregations of the species have been protected from bottom-contact fishing in the Scotian Shelf bioregion off Nova Scotia, Canada in the northwest Atlantic Ocean. Recently, basin-scale habitat suitability ensemble modeling has projected an alarming loss of 99% of suitable habitat for this species across the North Atlantic by 2100. Here, a regional reassessment of the predicted distribution of this species in the bioregion, using both machine learning (random forest) and generalized additive model (GAM) frameworks, including projection to 2046−2065, was undertaken. Extrapolation diagnostics were applied to determine the degree to which the models projected into novel covariate space (i.e., extrapolation) in order to avoid erroneous inferences. The best predictors of the species’ distribution were a suite of temporally-invariant terrain variables that identified suitable habitat along the upper continental slope. Additional predictors, projected to vary with future ocean climatologies, identified areas of the upper slope in the eastern portion of the study area that will remain within suitable ranges for P. arborea at least through to the mid-century. Additionally, 3-D Lagrangian particle tracking simulations indicated potential for both connectivity among known occurrence sites and existing protected areas, and for colonization of unsurveyed areas predicted to have suitable habitat, from locations of known occurrence. These results showed that extirpation of this iconic species from the Scotian Shelf bioregion is unlikely over the next decades. Potential climate refugia were identified and results presented in the context of protected area network design properties of representativity, connectivity, adequacy, viability and resilience. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Wang, Shuangqiang Murillo-Perez, Javier Kenchington, Ellen |
spellingShingle |
Wang, Shuangqiang Murillo-Perez, Javier Kenchington, Ellen Climate-Change Refugia for the Bubblegum Coral Paragorgia arborea in the Northwest Atlantic |
author_facet |
Wang, Shuangqiang Murillo-Perez, Javier Kenchington, Ellen |
author_sort |
Wang, Shuangqiang |
title |
Climate-Change Refugia for the Bubblegum Coral Paragorgia arborea in the Northwest Atlantic |
title_short |
Climate-Change Refugia for the Bubblegum Coral Paragorgia arborea in the Northwest Atlantic |
title_full |
Climate-Change Refugia for the Bubblegum Coral Paragorgia arborea in the Northwest Atlantic |
title_fullStr |
Climate-Change Refugia for the Bubblegum Coral Paragorgia arborea in the Northwest Atlantic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate-Change Refugia for the Bubblegum Coral Paragorgia arborea in the Northwest Atlantic |
title_sort |
climate-change refugia for the bubblegum coral paragorgia arborea in the northwest atlantic |
publisher |
Zenodo |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.863693 |
genre |
North Atlantic Northwest Atlantic Paragorgia arborea |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic Northwest Atlantic Paragorgia arborea |
op_relation |
https://zenodo.org/communities/iatlantic-project-collection https://zenodo.org/communities/eu https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.863693 oai:zenodo.org:7682821 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.863693 |
container_title |
Frontiers in Marine Science |
container_volume |
9 |
_version_ |
1810464193153859584 |