Shifting environmental predictors of phenotypes under climate change: A case study of growth in high latitude seabirds
Climate change is altering species' traits across the globe. To predict future trait changes and understand the consequences of those changes, we need to know the environmental drivers of phenotypic change. In the present study, we use multi-decadal long datasets to determine periods of within-...
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ftzenodo:oai:zenodo.org:7537990 2023-05-15T15:02:12+02:00 Shifting environmental predictors of phenotypes under climate change: A case study of growth in high latitude seabirds Sauve, Drew Friesen, Vicki Hatch, Scott Elliott, Kyle Charmantier, A. 2023-01-25 https://zenodo.org/record/7537990 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7537990 unknown doi:10.5061/dryad.v15dv420t doi:10.5281/zenodo.7537989 https://zenodo.org/communities/dryad https://zenodo.org/record/7537990 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7537990 oai:zenodo.org:7537990 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://opensource.org/licenses/MIT Climate Change development early-life growth ice-cover Temperature info:eu-repo/semantics/other software 2023 ftzenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.753799010.5061/dryad.v15dv420t10.5281/zenodo.7537989 2023-03-11T02:46:09Z Climate change is altering species' traits across the globe. To predict future trait changes and understand the consequences of those changes, we need to know the environmental drivers of phenotypic change. In the present study, we use multi-decadal long datasets to determine periods of within-year environmental variation that predict growth of three seabird species. We evaluate whether these periods changed over time and use them to predict future growth under climate change. We find that predictions of trait change could be improved by considering that 1) the timing of environmental factors used to predict traits (predictive-environmental features) can change over time, and 2) the type of predictive-environmental features can change over time. We find evidence of changes in the timing of environmental predictors in all populations studied and evidence for a change in the type of predictor in the studied Arctic murre population. Environmental models of growth predict that warming conditions will decrease growth rates and bird body sizes in two species (black-legged kittiwakem Rissa tridactyla, and glaucous-winged gullm Larus glaucescens), but not the third (thick-billed murrem Uria lomvia). Consequently, climate change is likely to decrease fledging rates in the gulls and kittiwakes. Further, we find that ice-cover historically predicted murre chick growth well, but no longer does – instead air temperature is now a better predictor of murre growth. Our study highlights a need to investigate whether environmental determinants of trait variation commonly shift in a changing climate and whether such changes have implications for adaptation to novel environments. Funding provided by: Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of CanadaCrossref Funder Registry ID: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000038Award Number: CGSD3Funding provided by: Toronto Dominion Bank*Crossref Funder Registry ID: Award Number: Fellowship in Arctic Environmental IssuesFunding provided by: Polar Knowledge CanadaCrossref Funder ... Software Arctic Climate change rissa tridactyla Uria lomvia uria Zenodo Arctic |
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Climate Change development early-life growth ice-cover Temperature |
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Climate Change development early-life growth ice-cover Temperature Sauve, Drew Friesen, Vicki Hatch, Scott Elliott, Kyle Charmantier, A. Shifting environmental predictors of phenotypes under climate change: A case study of growth in high latitude seabirds |
topic_facet |
Climate Change development early-life growth ice-cover Temperature |
description |
Climate change is altering species' traits across the globe. To predict future trait changes and understand the consequences of those changes, we need to know the environmental drivers of phenotypic change. In the present study, we use multi-decadal long datasets to determine periods of within-year environmental variation that predict growth of three seabird species. We evaluate whether these periods changed over time and use them to predict future growth under climate change. We find that predictions of trait change could be improved by considering that 1) the timing of environmental factors used to predict traits (predictive-environmental features) can change over time, and 2) the type of predictive-environmental features can change over time. We find evidence of changes in the timing of environmental predictors in all populations studied and evidence for a change in the type of predictor in the studied Arctic murre population. Environmental models of growth predict that warming conditions will decrease growth rates and bird body sizes in two species (black-legged kittiwakem Rissa tridactyla, and glaucous-winged gullm Larus glaucescens), but not the third (thick-billed murrem Uria lomvia). Consequently, climate change is likely to decrease fledging rates in the gulls and kittiwakes. Further, we find that ice-cover historically predicted murre chick growth well, but no longer does – instead air temperature is now a better predictor of murre growth. Our study highlights a need to investigate whether environmental determinants of trait variation commonly shift in a changing climate and whether such changes have implications for adaptation to novel environments. Funding provided by: Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of CanadaCrossref Funder Registry ID: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000038Award Number: CGSD3Funding provided by: Toronto Dominion Bank*Crossref Funder Registry ID: Award Number: Fellowship in Arctic Environmental IssuesFunding provided by: Polar Knowledge CanadaCrossref Funder ... |
format |
Software |
author |
Sauve, Drew Friesen, Vicki Hatch, Scott Elliott, Kyle Charmantier, A. |
author_facet |
Sauve, Drew Friesen, Vicki Hatch, Scott Elliott, Kyle Charmantier, A. |
author_sort |
Sauve, Drew |
title |
Shifting environmental predictors of phenotypes under climate change: A case study of growth in high latitude seabirds |
title_short |
Shifting environmental predictors of phenotypes under climate change: A case study of growth in high latitude seabirds |
title_full |
Shifting environmental predictors of phenotypes under climate change: A case study of growth in high latitude seabirds |
title_fullStr |
Shifting environmental predictors of phenotypes under climate change: A case study of growth in high latitude seabirds |
title_full_unstemmed |
Shifting environmental predictors of phenotypes under climate change: A case study of growth in high latitude seabirds |
title_sort |
shifting environmental predictors of phenotypes under climate change: a case study of growth in high latitude seabirds |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://zenodo.org/record/7537990 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7537990 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change rissa tridactyla Uria lomvia uria |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change rissa tridactyla Uria lomvia uria |
op_relation |
doi:10.5061/dryad.v15dv420t doi:10.5281/zenodo.7537989 https://zenodo.org/communities/dryad https://zenodo.org/record/7537990 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7537990 oai:zenodo.org:7537990 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://opensource.org/licenses/MIT |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.753799010.5061/dryad.v15dv420t10.5281/zenodo.7537989 |
_version_ |
1766334182656573440 |