Towards a next generation sea ice forecasting platform covering the Barents and Kara Seas

• Main Authors: Bouillon, Sylvain, Rampal, Pierre
• Format: Report
• Language: English
• Published: Zenodo 2017
• Subjects: Arctic; Kara Sea; Sea ice model; Elasto-brittle rheology; neXtSIM; Forecast; Ship navigation; Sea ice
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7436615

The goal was to increase and further evaluate the forecast quality of the current neXtSIM-F forecasting platform and to improve the dissemination of the results to end-users. The first part of the report includes an extension of the EB rheological framework to Maxwell EB. The second part presents an example of the use of the outputs of the neXtSIM model for planning and routing in near real-time a vessel navigating in ice-infested waters. As of today, the developed platform is able to provide on a daily basis accurate information on the sea ice concentration, thickness, volume of ridged ice and drift at a resolution of about 3 kilometers for the Kara and Barents Seas region, although it can easily be applied on other regions, or extended over the whole Arctic for a coarser resolution of 5 kilometers. The assimilated data either come from satellite data or from ice charts that are used operationally by ship captains. From the successful real-time use of the neXtSIM-F platform conducted this summer with SHOM, the collected feedbacks showed that the outputs are useful for planning operations and for guiding ships in ice-infested areas. In the future, it may be more relevant to use such forecasts than using ice charts or SAR images, because they are available, offer prediction, are easy to read for non-specialists and are easy to download even with low internet bandwidth. NERSC Technical Report no. 377. Funded by Total E&P Norway