Case studies in decadal climate predictability
It is well established that, based on knowledge of the initial conditions, important aspects of climate are predictable up to a year ahead. This predictability is primarily associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). But is climate predictable further ahead? To what extent does knowledg...
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ftzenodo:oai:zenodo.org:7355934 2024-09-15T18:23:54+00:00 Case studies in decadal climate predictability Hermanson, Leon Sutton, Rowan 2008-12-08 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7355934 eng eng Zenodo https://zenodo.org/communities/ceda-document-repository https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7355933 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7355934 oai:zenodo.org:7355934 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode 2008 NCAS Atmospheric Science Conference, Bristol Ramada Plaza Hotel, UK, 8-10 December decadal prediction info:eu-repo/semantics/conferencePoster 2008 ftzenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.735593410.5281/zenodo.7355933 2024-07-25T20:30:56Z It is well established that, based on knowledge of the initial conditions, important aspects of climate are predictable up to a year ahead. This predictability is primarily associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). But is climate predictable further ahead? To what extent does knowledge of initial conditions constrain longer-term climate forecasts? In this study we investigate whether there is evidence that climate variables are potentially predictable beyond the generally accepted limit of ENSO predictability. Recognising that predictability is likely to be dependent on initial conditions we consider model-based case studies rather than measures of average predictability. The atmosphere-ocean coupled Hadley Centre HadCM3 model was used in this work. Starting from a pre-indstrial state, a single run was integrated with observed changes in greenhouse gases, volcanic aerosols and the solar cycle for the period 1860-1950. Still using observed forcings, an ensemble of five members was started from the 1950 state and integrated for another 50 years. Each case study consists of two further ensembles started with contemporaneous intial conditions from two different members of the five member ensemble. Four case studies have been completed using ensemble members with opposing large, persistent, regional differences in sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content. The results show clear evidence that knowledge of initial conditions can constrain predictions of climate variables beyond ENSO predictability. In the particular case studies considered, the aspects of climate that are predictable include North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, western European and southeastern US 1.5m temperatures, tropical and subtropical precipitation inthe Pacific and tropical precipitation in the Atlantic. However, predictability of climate variables is strongly dependent on the initial conditions. What are the mechanisms that give rise to these predictable signals? In most cases it seems to be simple persistence of ocean ... Conference Object North Atlantic Zenodo |
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decadal prediction |
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decadal prediction Hermanson, Leon Sutton, Rowan Case studies in decadal climate predictability |
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decadal prediction |
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It is well established that, based on knowledge of the initial conditions, important aspects of climate are predictable up to a year ahead. This predictability is primarily associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). But is climate predictable further ahead? To what extent does knowledge of initial conditions constrain longer-term climate forecasts? In this study we investigate whether there is evidence that climate variables are potentially predictable beyond the generally accepted limit of ENSO predictability. Recognising that predictability is likely to be dependent on initial conditions we consider model-based case studies rather than measures of average predictability. The atmosphere-ocean coupled Hadley Centre HadCM3 model was used in this work. Starting from a pre-indstrial state, a single run was integrated with observed changes in greenhouse gases, volcanic aerosols and the solar cycle for the period 1860-1950. Still using observed forcings, an ensemble of five members was started from the 1950 state and integrated for another 50 years. Each case study consists of two further ensembles started with contemporaneous intial conditions from two different members of the five member ensemble. Four case studies have been completed using ensemble members with opposing large, persistent, regional differences in sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content. The results show clear evidence that knowledge of initial conditions can constrain predictions of climate variables beyond ENSO predictability. In the particular case studies considered, the aspects of climate that are predictable include North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, western European and southeastern US 1.5m temperatures, tropical and subtropical precipitation inthe Pacific and tropical precipitation in the Atlantic. However, predictability of climate variables is strongly dependent on the initial conditions. What are the mechanisms that give rise to these predictable signals? In most cases it seems to be simple persistence of ocean ... |
format |
Conference Object |
author |
Hermanson, Leon Sutton, Rowan |
author_facet |
Hermanson, Leon Sutton, Rowan |
author_sort |
Hermanson, Leon |
title |
Case studies in decadal climate predictability |
title_short |
Case studies in decadal climate predictability |
title_full |
Case studies in decadal climate predictability |
title_fullStr |
Case studies in decadal climate predictability |
title_full_unstemmed |
Case studies in decadal climate predictability |
title_sort |
case studies in decadal climate predictability |
publisher |
Zenodo |
publishDate |
2008 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7355934 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
2008 NCAS Atmospheric Science Conference, Bristol Ramada Plaza Hotel, UK, 8-10 December |
op_relation |
https://zenodo.org/communities/ceda-document-repository https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7355933 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7355934 oai:zenodo.org:7355934 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.735593410.5281/zenodo.7355933 |
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1810464184108843008 |