Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment
Despite considerable advances in process understanding, numerical modeling, and the observational record of ice sheet contributions to global mean sea-level rise (SLR) since the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, severe limitations remain in the predictiv...
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ftzenodo:oai:zenodo.org:7347297 2023-05-15T13:55:45+02:00 Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment Bamber, Jonathan L Oppenheimer, Michael Kopp, Robert E Aspinall, Willy P. Cooke, Roger M 2019-05-20 https://zenodo.org/record/7347297 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1817205116 unknown info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/694188/ https://zenodo.org/communities/globalmass https://zenodo.org/record/7347297 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1817205116 oai:zenodo.org:7347297 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode info:eu-repo/semantics/article publication-article 2019 ftzenodo https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1817205116 2023-03-10T19:32:40Z Despite considerable advances in process understanding, numerical modeling, and the observational record of ice sheet contributions to global mean sea-level rise (SLR) since the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, severe limitations remain in the predictive capability of ice sheet models. As a consequence, the potential contributions of ice sheets remain the largest source of uncertainty in projecting future SLR. Here, we report the findings of a structured expert judgement study, using unique techniques for modeling correlations between inter- and intra-ice sheet processes and their tail dependences. We find that since the AR5, expert uncertainty has grown, in particular because of uncertain ice dynamic effects. For a +2 °C temperature scenario consistent with the Paris Agreement, we obtain a median estimate of a 26 cm SLR contribution by 2100, with a 95th percentile value of 81 cm. For a +5 °C temperature scenario more consistent with unchecked emissions growth, the corresponding values are 51 and 178 cm, respectively. Inclusion of thermal expansion and glacier contributions results in a global total SLR estimate that exceeds 2 m at the 95th percentile. Our findings support the use of scenarios of 21st century global total SLR exceeding 2 m for planning purposes. Beyond 2100, uncertainty and projected SLR increase rapidly. The 95th percentile ice sheet contribution by 2200, for the +5 °C scenario, is 7.5 m as a result of instabilities coming into play in both West and East Antarctica. Introducing process correlations and tail dependences increases estimates by roughly 15%. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica East Antarctica Ice Sheet Zenodo East Antarctica Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 116 23 11195 11200 |
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Despite considerable advances in process understanding, numerical modeling, and the observational record of ice sheet contributions to global mean sea-level rise (SLR) since the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, severe limitations remain in the predictive capability of ice sheet models. As a consequence, the potential contributions of ice sheets remain the largest source of uncertainty in projecting future SLR. Here, we report the findings of a structured expert judgement study, using unique techniques for modeling correlations between inter- and intra-ice sheet processes and their tail dependences. We find that since the AR5, expert uncertainty has grown, in particular because of uncertain ice dynamic effects. For a +2 °C temperature scenario consistent with the Paris Agreement, we obtain a median estimate of a 26 cm SLR contribution by 2100, with a 95th percentile value of 81 cm. For a +5 °C temperature scenario more consistent with unchecked emissions growth, the corresponding values are 51 and 178 cm, respectively. Inclusion of thermal expansion and glacier contributions results in a global total SLR estimate that exceeds 2 m at the 95th percentile. Our findings support the use of scenarios of 21st century global total SLR exceeding 2 m for planning purposes. Beyond 2100, uncertainty and projected SLR increase rapidly. The 95th percentile ice sheet contribution by 2200, for the +5 °C scenario, is 7.5 m as a result of instabilities coming into play in both West and East Antarctica. Introducing process correlations and tail dependences increases estimates by roughly 15%. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bamber, Jonathan L Oppenheimer, Michael Kopp, Robert E Aspinall, Willy P. Cooke, Roger M |
spellingShingle |
Bamber, Jonathan L Oppenheimer, Michael Kopp, Robert E Aspinall, Willy P. Cooke, Roger M Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment |
author_facet |
Bamber, Jonathan L Oppenheimer, Michael Kopp, Robert E Aspinall, Willy P. Cooke, Roger M |
author_sort |
Bamber, Jonathan L |
title |
Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment |
title_short |
Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment |
title_full |
Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment |
title_fullStr |
Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment |
title_full_unstemmed |
Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment |
title_sort |
ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://zenodo.org/record/7347297 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1817205116 |
geographic |
East Antarctica |
geographic_facet |
East Antarctica |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica East Antarctica Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica East Antarctica Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/694188/ https://zenodo.org/communities/globalmass https://zenodo.org/record/7347297 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1817205116 oai:zenodo.org:7347297 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1817205116 |
container_title |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
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116 |
container_issue |
23 |
container_start_page |
11195 |
op_container_end_page |
11200 |
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1766262583342399488 |