Tendencies in the variability of climatic values in permafrost zone of Western Siberia in the XXI century

• Main Author: Kharyutkina Elena., Martynova Yulia, Moraru Evgeniia, Loginov Sergey
• Format: Conference Object
• Language: unknown
• Published: 2022
• Subjects: Arctic; Global warming; permafrost; Siberia
• Online Access: https://zenodo.org/record/7146232; https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7146232

In the framework of the study, we investigate spatiotemporal variability of the main climatic variables in the Arctic part of the territory of Western Siberia at the end of the XXth and beginning of the XXIst centuries, as well as their trends until the year of 2100 using the method of mathematical modeling. Calculations of the variability of the main climatic parameters (surface air temperature, wind speed, atmospheric precipitation, and soil temperature at depths) were carried out for the northern part of Western Siberia (60–70° N, 60–90° E). We used daily and monthly averaged values of these quantities measured at meteorological stations (VNIIGMI-WDC, http://meteo.ru/data), as well as ERA5 reanalysis data (https://ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets /reanalysis-datasets/era5) with a spatial resolution of 0.25 × 0.25°. The study was conducted on the time interval of 1979–2020. To assess the regional response to global warming, the results of the INM-CM5.0 model calculation from the CMIP6 project data archive (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6) were used. The spatial resolution of the INM-CM5.0 model in the atmosphere is 2°×1.5° in longitude and latitude. Three climatic scenarios were considered: Historical for the period of 1979–2014, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 for the period of 2080–2100. For the territory of under study, seasonal and interannual variability of surface air and soil temperature, wind speed, and precipitation were obtained, as well as their trends until the end of the XXIst century: temperature and precipitation are expected to rise, no significant changes were found for wind speed. Thus, according to the estimates of mathematical modeling methods, by the end of the XXIst century, the air temperature, as well as the soil temperature, will continue to grow, which, in turn, will lead to an increase in the depth of the seasonal thawing layer and a shift in the boundary of the permafrost zone to the north.