Deliverable 6.11 Climate model initialization V2
This report describes the final results of the work performed in Task 6.1, which has the main goal of improving the skill of climate predictions, investigating the benefits related to the exploitation of INTAROS data. Such benefits demonstrate a clear potential for users of Arctic data and stakehold...
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ftzenodo:oai:zenodo.org:7138627 2023-05-15T14:56:36+02:00 Deliverable 6.11 Climate model initialization V2 Kruschke, Tim Karami, Mehdi Pasha Navarro, Juan C. Acosta Vladimir Lapin Pablo Ortega Counillon, François Gustafsson, David 2021-11-30 https://zenodo.org/record/7138627 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7138627 eng eng info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/727890/ doi:10.5281/zenodo.7138626 https://zenodo.org/communities/intaros-h2020 https://zenodo.org/record/7138627 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7138627 oai:zenodo.org:7138627 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode Arctic INTAROS Climate Model Climate Prediction Sea Ice Concentration River Discharge Observation Systems info:eu-repo/semantics/report publication-deliverable 2021 ftzenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.713862710.5281/zenodo.7138626 2023-03-10T15:54:22Z This report describes the final results of the work performed in Task 6.1, which has the main goal of improving the skill of climate predictions, investigating the benefits related to the exploitation of INTAROS data. Such benefits demonstrate a clear potential for users of Arctic data and stakeholders of climate prediction. A key ingredient to skillful seasonal-to-decadal climate prediction is the use of high-quality observational data, that cover a sufficiently long period, typically at least a few decades to test robustly their impact. This emphasizes the need - from a user perspective - to sustain and continue the production of the various iAOS products. The works in the task made use of three different datasets produced in INTAROS, namely CERSAT sea-ice concentrations, SMOS sea-thickness, and Arctic-HYCOS river discharges. The results found in Task 6.1 are: 1. CERSAT sea-ice concentrations were successfully used to assess the skill of SMHI’s quasi-operational decadal climate predictions with EC-Earth3 regarding September Northern Hemisphere sea-ice area for a lead time of 11 months (based on the period 1992-2020; correlation of 0.83) and the quality of new assimilation experiments providing potentially better initial conditions for climate predictions (correlation of 0.9 including long-term trend; 0.58 for detrended data, i.e. interannual variability). 2. CERSAT sea-ice concentrations were assimilated for BSC’s seasonal climate prediction system employing EC-Earth3. It is shown that the assimilation of sea-ice concentrations does not yield significant benefit for winter seasonal predictions (started on 1 November) but do have a remarkable positive impact on summer seasonal predictions (started on 1 May) regarding the sea-ice edge but also remote North Atlantic SSTs. The latter is shown to be the result of a so-called atmospheric bridge translating the improved sea-ice representation via more realistic large-scale atmospheric variability into the SST-signal. 3. Anomalies derived from sea-ice concentrations ... Report Arctic North Atlantic Sea ice Zenodo Arctic |
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English |
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Arctic INTAROS Climate Model Climate Prediction Sea Ice Concentration River Discharge Observation Systems |
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Arctic INTAROS Climate Model Climate Prediction Sea Ice Concentration River Discharge Observation Systems Kruschke, Tim Karami, Mehdi Pasha Navarro, Juan C. Acosta Vladimir Lapin Pablo Ortega Counillon, François Gustafsson, David Deliverable 6.11 Climate model initialization V2 |
topic_facet |
Arctic INTAROS Climate Model Climate Prediction Sea Ice Concentration River Discharge Observation Systems |
description |
This report describes the final results of the work performed in Task 6.1, which has the main goal of improving the skill of climate predictions, investigating the benefits related to the exploitation of INTAROS data. Such benefits demonstrate a clear potential for users of Arctic data and stakeholders of climate prediction. A key ingredient to skillful seasonal-to-decadal climate prediction is the use of high-quality observational data, that cover a sufficiently long period, typically at least a few decades to test robustly their impact. This emphasizes the need - from a user perspective - to sustain and continue the production of the various iAOS products. The works in the task made use of three different datasets produced in INTAROS, namely CERSAT sea-ice concentrations, SMOS sea-thickness, and Arctic-HYCOS river discharges. The results found in Task 6.1 are: 1. CERSAT sea-ice concentrations were successfully used to assess the skill of SMHI’s quasi-operational decadal climate predictions with EC-Earth3 regarding September Northern Hemisphere sea-ice area for a lead time of 11 months (based on the period 1992-2020; correlation of 0.83) and the quality of new assimilation experiments providing potentially better initial conditions for climate predictions (correlation of 0.9 including long-term trend; 0.58 for detrended data, i.e. interannual variability). 2. CERSAT sea-ice concentrations were assimilated for BSC’s seasonal climate prediction system employing EC-Earth3. It is shown that the assimilation of sea-ice concentrations does not yield significant benefit for winter seasonal predictions (started on 1 November) but do have a remarkable positive impact on summer seasonal predictions (started on 1 May) regarding the sea-ice edge but also remote North Atlantic SSTs. The latter is shown to be the result of a so-called atmospheric bridge translating the improved sea-ice representation via more realistic large-scale atmospheric variability into the SST-signal. 3. Anomalies derived from sea-ice concentrations ... |
format |
Report |
author |
Kruschke, Tim Karami, Mehdi Pasha Navarro, Juan C. Acosta Vladimir Lapin Pablo Ortega Counillon, François Gustafsson, David |
author_facet |
Kruschke, Tim Karami, Mehdi Pasha Navarro, Juan C. Acosta Vladimir Lapin Pablo Ortega Counillon, François Gustafsson, David |
author_sort |
Kruschke, Tim |
title |
Deliverable 6.11 Climate model initialization V2 |
title_short |
Deliverable 6.11 Climate model initialization V2 |
title_full |
Deliverable 6.11 Climate model initialization V2 |
title_fullStr |
Deliverable 6.11 Climate model initialization V2 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Deliverable 6.11 Climate model initialization V2 |
title_sort |
deliverable 6.11 climate model initialization v2 |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://zenodo.org/record/7138627 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7138627 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic North Atlantic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic North Atlantic Sea ice |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/727890/ doi:10.5281/zenodo.7138626 https://zenodo.org/communities/intaros-h2020 https://zenodo.org/record/7138627 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7138627 oai:zenodo.org:7138627 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.713862710.5281/zenodo.7138626 |
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1766328691824001024 |