Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model
Climate change has already altered the distribution of marine fishes. Future predictions of fish distributions and catches based on bioclimate envelope models are available, but to date they have not considered interspecific interactions. We address this by combining the species-based Dynamic Biocli...
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Language: | English |
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ftzenodo:oai:zenodo.org:7025 2023-05-15T17:31:07+02:00 Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model Fernandes, José A. Cheung, William W. L. Jennings, Simon Butenschön, Momme de Mora, Lee Frölicher, Thomas L. Barange, Manuel Grant, Alastair 2013-08-01 https://zenodo.org/record/7025 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12231 eng eng info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/264933/ https://zenodo.org/communities/euro-basin https://zenodo.org/communities/ecfunded https://zenodo.org/communities/zenodo https://zenodo.org/record/7025 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12231 oai:zenodo.org:7025 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Global change biology 19(8) 2596-2607 (2013) biological feedback climate change competition ecosystem approach fisheries management model validation modelling size spectrum species interactions info:eu-repo/semantics/article publication-article 2013 ftzenodo https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12231 2023-03-11T03:18:37Z Climate change has already altered the distribution of marine fishes. Future predictions of fish distributions and catches based on bioclimate envelope models are available, but to date they have not considered interspecific interactions. We address this by combining the species-based Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM) with a size-based trophic model. The new approach provides spatially and temporally resolved predictions of changes in species' size, abundance and catch potential that account for the effects of ecological interactions. Predicted latitudinal shifts are, on average, reduced by 20% when species interactions are incorporated, compared to DBEM predictions, with pelagic species showing the greatest reductions. Goodness-of-fit of biomass data from fish stock assessments in the North Atlantic between 1991 and 2003 is improved slightly by including species interactions. The differences between predictions from the two models may be relatively modest because, at the North Atlantic basin scale, (i) predators and competitors may respond to climate change together; (ii) existing parameterization of the DBEM might implicitly incorporate trophic interactions; and/or (iii) trophic interactions might not be the main driver of responses to climate. Future analyses using ecologically explicit models and data will improve understanding of the effects of inter-specific interactions on responses to climate change, and better inform managers about plausible ecological and fishery consequences of a changing environment. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Zenodo Global Change Biology 19 8 2596 2607 |
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ftzenodo |
language |
English |
topic |
biological feedback climate change competition ecosystem approach fisheries management model validation modelling size spectrum species interactions |
spellingShingle |
biological feedback climate change competition ecosystem approach fisheries management model validation modelling size spectrum species interactions Fernandes, José A. Cheung, William W. L. Jennings, Simon Butenschön, Momme de Mora, Lee Frölicher, Thomas L. Barange, Manuel Grant, Alastair Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model |
topic_facet |
biological feedback climate change competition ecosystem approach fisheries management model validation modelling size spectrum species interactions |
description |
Climate change has already altered the distribution of marine fishes. Future predictions of fish distributions and catches based on bioclimate envelope models are available, but to date they have not considered interspecific interactions. We address this by combining the species-based Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM) with a size-based trophic model. The new approach provides spatially and temporally resolved predictions of changes in species' size, abundance and catch potential that account for the effects of ecological interactions. Predicted latitudinal shifts are, on average, reduced by 20% when species interactions are incorporated, compared to DBEM predictions, with pelagic species showing the greatest reductions. Goodness-of-fit of biomass data from fish stock assessments in the North Atlantic between 1991 and 2003 is improved slightly by including species interactions. The differences between predictions from the two models may be relatively modest because, at the North Atlantic basin scale, (i) predators and competitors may respond to climate change together; (ii) existing parameterization of the DBEM might implicitly incorporate trophic interactions; and/or (iii) trophic interactions might not be the main driver of responses to climate. Future analyses using ecologically explicit models and data will improve understanding of the effects of inter-specific interactions on responses to climate change, and better inform managers about plausible ecological and fishery consequences of a changing environment. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Fernandes, José A. Cheung, William W. L. Jennings, Simon Butenschön, Momme de Mora, Lee Frölicher, Thomas L. Barange, Manuel Grant, Alastair |
author_facet |
Fernandes, José A. Cheung, William W. L. Jennings, Simon Butenschön, Momme de Mora, Lee Frölicher, Thomas L. Barange, Manuel Grant, Alastair |
author_sort |
Fernandes, José A. |
title |
Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model |
title_short |
Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model |
title_full |
Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model |
title_fullStr |
Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model |
title_sort |
modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://zenodo.org/record/7025 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12231 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Global change biology 19(8) 2596-2607 (2013) |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/264933/ https://zenodo.org/communities/euro-basin https://zenodo.org/communities/ecfunded https://zenodo.org/communities/zenodo https://zenodo.org/record/7025 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12231 oai:zenodo.org:7025 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12231 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
container_volume |
19 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
2596 |
op_container_end_page |
2607 |
_version_ |
1766128435778813952 |