Future seasonal changes in habitat for Arctic whales during predicted ocean warming

• Main Authors: Chambault, Philippine, Kovacs, Kit M, Lydersen, Christian, Shpak, Olga, Teilmann, Jonas, Albertsen, Christoffer M., Heide-Jørgensen, Mads Peter
• Format: Other/Unknown Material
• Language: unknown
• Published: Zenodo 2022
• Subjects: bowhead whale; beluga; narwhal; species distribution models; climate models; automated machine learning; Beluga; Beluga*; Climate change; Greenland; Greenland Institute of Natural Resources; narwhal*; Norwegian Polar Institute
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.tqjq2bw2c

Ocean warming is causing shifts in the distributions of marine species, but the location of suitable habitats in the future is unknown, especially in remote regions such as the Arctic. Using satellite tracking data from a 28-year long period, covering all three endemic Arctic cetaceans (227 individuals) in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic, together with climate models under two emission scenarios, species distributions were projected to assess responses of these whales to climate change by the end of the century. While contrasting responses were observed across species and seasons, long-term predictions suggest northward shifts (243 km in summer vs. 121 km in winter) in distribution to cope with climate change. Current summer habitats will decline (mean loss: - 25%), while some expansion into new winter areas (mean gain: +3%) is likely. However, comparing gains vs. losses raises serious concerns about the ability of these polar species to deal with the disappearance of traditional colder habitats. Funding provided by: Norwegian Research Council Crossref Funder Registry ID: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100005416 Award Number: 244488/E10 Funding provided by: Norwegian Polar Institute Crossref Funder Registry ID: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100013265 Award Number: Funding provided by: Norway-Russia Environment Commission* Crossref Funder Registry ID: Award Number: Funding provided by: Office of Naval Research Crossref Funder Registry ID: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000006 Award Number: N00014-13-1-0854 Funding provided by: Commission for Scientific Research in Greenland* Crossref Funder Registry ID: Award Number: Funding provided by: Danish Cooperation for the Environment in the Arctic * Crossref Funder Registry ID: Award Number: Funding provided by: The Carlsberg Foundation* Crossref Funder Registry ID: Award Number: Funding provided by: The Greenland Institute of Natural Resources* Crossref Funder Registry ID: Award Number: Funding provided by: Environmental Agency for Mineral Resource Activities of the ...