Forest expansion for different warming scenarios simulated for 2010 to 3000 CE with LAVESI for Siberia

• Main Authors: Kruse, Stefan, Herzschuh, Ulrike
• Format: Other/Unknown Material
• Language: English
• Published: Zenodo 2022
• Subjects: Simulation; IBM; Siberia; Larix; Treeline; Arctic Ocean; Chukotka; kolyma river; taiga; Taimyr; Tundra
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6484111

Simulations with the spatially explicit and individual-based Siberian forest model LAVESI (Kruse et al., 2016, 2018, 2019) were set-up for transect in four focus regions covering the East Siberian treeline and tundra area (details in Kruse & Herzschuh, submitted). The model was updated to include climate forcing data for 300-800 km long and 20 m wide transects necessary for simulating the forest development between the northern taiga forests and the coast of the Arctic Ocean. Forced with climate forecasts driven by relative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 and one with half the warming of RCP 2.6 named 2.6*. These were extended until 3000 AD either following the cooling of the scenarios after peak-warming, or with an arbitrary cooling back to levels of the 20th century. During the simulations, three key variables were extracted in 10-year steps for 2000-3000 AD: single-tree line, treeline, and, forest line, which are defined as the northernmost position of stands with >1 stem (tree > 1.3 m tall) per ha, the northernmost position of a forest cover not falling below 1 stem per ha, and, the northernmost position of a forest cover not falling below 100 stems ha per ha (see for a graphical representation Fig. 2 in Kruse et al., 2019). The determined treeline at year 2000 was used as baseline expansion and subtracted from each following years’ values. Furthermore, the tundra area was estimated for each of the four regions as the area between the treeline and the Arctic Ocean, based on interpolating the treeline position at the four transects over the complete modern treeline (Walker et al., 2005). Content of Table 1 "Kruse_and_Herzschuh_2022_Forest_expansion_in_Siberia_2010_to_3000_CE.csv": Column 1: Scenario: RCP scenario used Column 2: Region: One of the four regions, from east-to-west Taimyr Peninsula, Buor Khaya Peninsula, Kolyma River Basin, Chukotka Column 3: Year: Year in CE of the simulation in 10 year steps Column 4: Forest line in m Column 5: Treeline in m Column 6: ...