Projections of shipping emissions and the related impact on air pollution and human health in the Nordic region

• Published in: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
• Main Authors: Geels, Camilla, Winther, Morten, Andersson, Camilla, Jalkanen, Jukka-Pekka, Brandt, Jørgen, Frohn, Lise M., Im, Ulas, Leung, Wing, Christensen, Jesper H.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Zenodo 2021
• Subjects: shipping; Arctic; Black Carbon; Emission Control Area; black carbon; Human health; Sea ice
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12495-2021

International initiatives have successfully brought down the emissions, and hence also the related negative impacts on environment and human health, from shipping in Emission Control Areas (ECAs). However, the question remains as to whether increased shipping in the future will counteract these emission reductions. The overall goal of this study is to provide an up-to-date view on future ship emissions and provide a holistic view on atmospheric pollutants and their contribution to air quality in the Nordic (and Arctic) area. The first step has been to set up new and detailed scenarios for the potential developments in global shipping emissions, including different regulations and new routes in the Arctic. The scenarios include a Baseline scenario and two additional SOx Emission Control Areas (SECAs) and heavy fuel oil (HFO) ban scenarios. All three scenarios are calculated in two variants involving Business-AsUsual (BAU) and High-Growth (HiG) traffic scenarios. Additionally a Polar route scenario is included with new ship traffic routes in the future Arctic with less sea ice. This has been combined with existing Current Legislation scenarios for the land-based emissions (ECLIPSE V5a) and used as input for two Nordic chemistry transport models (DEHM and MATCH). Thereby, the current (2015) and future (2030, 2050) air pollution levels and the contribution from shipping have been simulated for the Nordic and Arctic areas. Population exposure and the number of premature deaths attributable to air pollution in the Nordic area have thereafter been assessed by using the health assessment model EVA (Economic Valuation of Air pollution). It is estimated that within the Nordic region approximately 9900 persons died prematurely due to air pollution in 2015 (corresponding to approximately 37 premature deaths for every 100 000 inhabitants). When including the projected development in both shipping and land-based emissions, this number is estimated to decrease to approximately 7900 in 2050. Shipping alone is associated with ...