Determinación y Calibración de Modelos Analíticos para Mejorar el Pronóstico de Huracanes

• Main Author: Varona, Humberto L.
• Format: Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis
• Language: Spanish
• Published: 2012
• Subjects: Huracán; Olas; Vientos; Modelos de pronósticos; North Atlantic
• Online Access: https://zenodo.org/record/5229181; https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5229181

In this thesis invetigate the existing models about hurricane’s structrure that pass over the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Mexican Gulf and we found that there is no any satisfactory model that determine the structure of a hurricane. Every models except the Collins-Viehnaman’s model, only take into account the maximun wind radii and not the eye's radii, wich determine the null speed inside the eye, neither the radii of the last closed isobar that delimits the distance were from the wind begin to disorganize. The Collins-Viehnaman’s model delimits the null speed inside the eye to one third of maximun wind radii but when we prove this experimentally, the results were not good. We analyze the majority of the actual valid models to determine the speed’s field, the pressure’s field and wave’s field generated by quasi stationary and moving hurricane. Trajectories of several hurricanes was examinated and the experimental data of the weather stations placed in the NOAA's buoys and on land of the NSSL, also visible light images and IR was analyzed, these was captured from the satellites GOES – 12, GOES - EAST, QuikSCAT, Terra and Aqua, the transborder espacial Atlantis and the international space station. Finally, a structure model was created that has in calculation the eye's radii, the maximum winds radii and the last isobar's radii closed. The models to determinate the velocities, pressures and wave fields was reformulated having in account structure's new model. The model of the atmospheric pressure's profile it is delimited for smallest pressures or equals that the closed value of the pressure in the last isobar and they obtain two analytical expressions in the waves model starting from the USACE’s model to estimate of a more simple form the waves field of a quasi stationary hurricane, also equations was formulated to determine the waves height and the period in a point out of the maximum winds radii for a moving hurricane