Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3
A substantial part of Arctic climate predictability at interannual timescales stems from the knowledge of the initial sea ice conditions. Among all sea ice properties, its volume, which is a product of sea ice concentration (SIC) and thickness (SIT), is the most responsive parameter to climate chang...
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ftzenodo:oai:zenodo.org:5109428 2024-09-15T17:53:37+00:00 Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3 Tian Tian Shuting Yang Medhi Karami François Massonnet Tim Kruschke Torben Koenigk 2021-07-08 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4283-2021 unknown Zenodo https://zenodo.org/communities/applicate https://zenodo.org/communities/intaros-h2020 https://zenodo.org/communities/eu https://zenodo.org/communities/blue-actionh2020 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4283-2021 oai:zenodo.org:5109428 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2021 ftzenodo https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4283-2021 2024-07-26T03:27:59Z A substantial part of Arctic climate predictability at interannual timescales stems from the knowledge of the initial sea ice conditions. Among all sea ice properties, its volume, which is a product of sea ice concentration (SIC) and thickness (SIT), is the most responsive parameter to climate change. However, the majority of climate prediction systems are only assimilating the observed SIC due to lack of longterm reliable global observation of SIT. In this study, the ECEarth3 Climate Prediction System with anomaly initialization to ocean, SIC and SIT states is developed. In order to evaluate the regional benefits of specific initialized variables, three sets of retrospective ensemble prediction experiments are performed with different initialization strategies: ocean only; ocean plus SIC; and ocean plus SIC and SIT initialization. In the Atlantic Arctic, the Greenland–Iceland–Norway (GIN) and Barents seas are the two most skilful regions in SIC prediction for up to 5–6 lead years with ocean initialization; there are re-emerging skills for SIC in the Barents and Kara seas in lead years 7–9 coinciding with improved skills of sea surface temperature (SST), reflecting the impactof SIC initialization on ocean–atmosphere interactions for interannual-to-decadal timescales. For the year 2–9 average, the region with significant skill for SIT is confined to the central Arctic Ocean, covered by multi-year sea ice (CAO-MYI). Winter preconditioning with SIT initialization increases the skill for September SIC in the eastern Arctic (e.g. Kara, Laptev and East Siberian seas) and in turn improve the skill of air surface temperature locally and further expanded over land. SIT initialization outperforms the other initialization methods in improving SIT prediction in the Pacific Arctic (e.g. East Siberian and Beaufort seas) in the first few lead years. Our results suggest that as the climate warming continues and the central Arctic Ocean might become seasonal ice free in the future, the controlling mechanism for decadal ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Ocean Atlantic Arctic Atlantic-Arctic Climate change Greenland Iceland Kara-Laptev laptev Pacific Arctic Sea ice Zenodo Geoscientific Model Development 14 7 4283 4305 |
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A substantial part of Arctic climate predictability at interannual timescales stems from the knowledge of the initial sea ice conditions. Among all sea ice properties, its volume, which is a product of sea ice concentration (SIC) and thickness (SIT), is the most responsive parameter to climate change. However, the majority of climate prediction systems are only assimilating the observed SIC due to lack of longterm reliable global observation of SIT. In this study, the ECEarth3 Climate Prediction System with anomaly initialization to ocean, SIC and SIT states is developed. In order to evaluate the regional benefits of specific initialized variables, three sets of retrospective ensemble prediction experiments are performed with different initialization strategies: ocean only; ocean plus SIC; and ocean plus SIC and SIT initialization. In the Atlantic Arctic, the Greenland–Iceland–Norway (GIN) and Barents seas are the two most skilful regions in SIC prediction for up to 5–6 lead years with ocean initialization; there are re-emerging skills for SIC in the Barents and Kara seas in lead years 7–9 coinciding with improved skills of sea surface temperature (SST), reflecting the impactof SIC initialization on ocean–atmosphere interactions for interannual-to-decadal timescales. For the year 2–9 average, the region with significant skill for SIT is confined to the central Arctic Ocean, covered by multi-year sea ice (CAO-MYI). Winter preconditioning with SIT initialization increases the skill for September SIC in the eastern Arctic (e.g. Kara, Laptev and East Siberian seas) and in turn improve the skill of air surface temperature locally and further expanded over land. SIT initialization outperforms the other initialization methods in improving SIT prediction in the Pacific Arctic (e.g. East Siberian and Beaufort seas) in the first few lead years. Our results suggest that as the climate warming continues and the central Arctic Ocean might become seasonal ice free in the future, the controlling mechanism for decadal ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Tian Tian Shuting Yang Medhi Karami François Massonnet Tim Kruschke Torben Koenigk |
spellingShingle |
Tian Tian Shuting Yang Medhi Karami François Massonnet Tim Kruschke Torben Koenigk Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3 |
author_facet |
Tian Tian Shuting Yang Medhi Karami François Massonnet Tim Kruschke Torben Koenigk |
author_sort |
Tian Tian |
title |
Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3 |
title_short |
Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3 |
title_full |
Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3 |
title_fullStr |
Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3 |
title_sort |
benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the arctic in ec-earth3 |
publisher |
Zenodo |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4283-2021 |
genre |
Arctic Ocean Atlantic Arctic Atlantic-Arctic Climate change Greenland Iceland Kara-Laptev laptev Pacific Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Ocean Atlantic Arctic Atlantic-Arctic Climate change Greenland Iceland Kara-Laptev laptev Pacific Arctic Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://zenodo.org/communities/applicate https://zenodo.org/communities/intaros-h2020 https://zenodo.org/communities/eu https://zenodo.org/communities/blue-actionh2020 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4283-2021 oai:zenodo.org:5109428 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4283-2021 |
container_title |
Geoscientific Model Development |
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14 |
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7 |
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4283 |
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4305 |
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1810429518911897600 |