Observation-based selection of climate models projects Arctic ice-free summers around 2035
Arctic sea ice has been retreating at an accelerating pace over the past decades. Model projections show that the Arctic Ocean could be almost ice free in summer by the middle of this century. However, the uncertainties related to these projections are relatively large. Here we use 33 global climate...
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Online Access: | https://zenodo.org/record/5105748 https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00214-7 |
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ftzenodo:oai:zenodo.org:5105748 2023-06-06T11:49:00+02:00 Observation-based selection of climate models projects Arctic ice-free summers around 2035 Docquier David Koenigk Torben 2021-07-15 https://zenodo.org/record/5105748 https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00214-7 unknown info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/834493/ doi:10.5281/zenodo.4912115 https://zenodo.org/record/5105748 https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00214-7 oai:zenodo.org:5105748 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode Sea ice Climate models info:eu-repo/semantics/article publication-article 2021 ftzenodo https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00214-710.5281/zenodo.4912115 2023-04-13T23:15:26Z Arctic sea ice has been retreating at an accelerating pace over the past decades. Model projections show that the Arctic Ocean could be almost ice free in summer by the middle of this century. However, the uncertainties related to these projections are relatively large. Here we use 33 global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) and select models that best capture the observed Arctic sea-ice area and volume and northward ocean heat transport to refine model projections of Arctic sea ice. This model selection leads to lower Arctic sea-ice area and volume relative to the multi-model mean without model selection and summer ice-free conditions could occur as early as around 2035. These results highlight a potential underestimation of future Arctic sea-ice loss when including all CMIP6 models. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice Zenodo Arctic Arctic Ocean Communications Earth & Environment 2 1 |
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ftzenodo |
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unknown |
topic |
Sea ice Climate models |
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Sea ice Climate models Docquier David Koenigk Torben Observation-based selection of climate models projects Arctic ice-free summers around 2035 |
topic_facet |
Sea ice Climate models |
description |
Arctic sea ice has been retreating at an accelerating pace over the past decades. Model projections show that the Arctic Ocean could be almost ice free in summer by the middle of this century. However, the uncertainties related to these projections are relatively large. Here we use 33 global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) and select models that best capture the observed Arctic sea-ice area and volume and northward ocean heat transport to refine model projections of Arctic sea ice. This model selection leads to lower Arctic sea-ice area and volume relative to the multi-model mean without model selection and summer ice-free conditions could occur as early as around 2035. These results highlight a potential underestimation of future Arctic sea-ice loss when including all CMIP6 models. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Docquier David Koenigk Torben |
author_facet |
Docquier David Koenigk Torben |
author_sort |
Docquier David |
title |
Observation-based selection of climate models projects Arctic ice-free summers around 2035 |
title_short |
Observation-based selection of climate models projects Arctic ice-free summers around 2035 |
title_full |
Observation-based selection of climate models projects Arctic ice-free summers around 2035 |
title_fullStr |
Observation-based selection of climate models projects Arctic ice-free summers around 2035 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Observation-based selection of climate models projects Arctic ice-free summers around 2035 |
title_sort |
observation-based selection of climate models projects arctic ice-free summers around 2035 |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://zenodo.org/record/5105748 https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00214-7 |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/834493/ doi:10.5281/zenodo.4912115 https://zenodo.org/record/5105748 https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00214-7 oai:zenodo.org:5105748 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00214-710.5281/zenodo.4912115 |
container_title |
Communications Earth & Environment |
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2 |
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1 |
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1767954534442729472 |