Data from: Statistical forecasting of current and future circum-Arctic ground temperatures and active layer thickness

• Main Authors: Aalto, Juha, Karjalainen, Olli, Hjort, Jan, Luoto, Miska
• Format: Dataset
• Language: unknown
• Published: 2019
• Subjects: Mean annual ground temperature; Ground thermal regime; Active layer; Permafrost; Ensemble modeling; Arctic; Active layer thickness; Climate change; permafrost
• Online Access: https://zenodo.org/record/5003804; https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.886pr72

Mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) and active layer thickness (ALT) are key to understanding the evolution of the ground thermal state across the Arctic under climate change. Here a statistical modeling approach is presented to forecast current and future circum-Arctic MAGT and ALT in relation to climatic and local environmental factors, at spatial scales unreachable with contemporary transient modeling. After deploying an ensemble of multiple statistical techniques, distance-blocked cross-validation between observations and predictions suggested excellent and reasonable transferability of the MAGT and ALT models, respectively. The MAGT forecasts indicated currently suitable conditions for permafrost to prevail over an area of 15.1 ± 2.8 × 106 km2. This extent is likely to dramatically contract in the future, as the results showed consistent, but region-specific, changes in ground thermal regime due to climate change. The forecasts provide new opportunities to assess future Arctic changes in ground thermal state and biogeochemical feedbacks. Circum-Arctic mean annual ground temperature rastersThese data represent the mean annual ground temperature (MAGT, in °C) forecasts over northern hemisphere land areas (>30°N) presented in the manuscript by Aalto et al., (2018) "Statistical forecasting of current and future circum-Arctic ground temperatures and active layer thickness" published in Geophysical Research Letters. The data has been produced for several time periods and representative concentration pathways (RCP), and they represent the ensemble median of four statistical modelling techniques: MAGT_Baseline.tif # Forecasted MAGT 2000-2014 MAGT_2050RCP26.tif # 2041-2060 RCP 2.6 MAGT_2050RCP45.tif # 2041-2060 RCP 4.5 MAGT_2050RCP85.tif # 2041-2060 RCP 8.5 MAGT_2070RCP26.tif # 2061-2080 RCP 2.6 MAGT_2070RCP45.tif # 2061-2080 RCP 4.5 MAGT_2070RCP85.tif # 2061-2080 RCP 8.5 Coordinate reference system = WGS84 (epsg:4326), spatial resolution = 30 arc seconds Contact: ...