Data from: Modeling time to population extinction when individual reproduction is autocorrelated

• Main Authors: Lee, Aline Magdalena, Sæther, Bernt-Erik, Markussen, Stine Svalheim, Engen, Steinar, Saether, Bernt-Erik
• Format: Dataset
• Language: unknown
• Published: 2018
• Subjects: reproductive autocorrelation; age structure; Demographic Stochasticity; Alces alces; matrix model; dynamic heterogeneity; moose
• Online Access: https://zenodo.org/record/5002461; https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.5g0rg

In nature, individual reproductive success is seldom independent from year to year, due to factors such as reproductive costs and individual heterogeneity. However, population projection models that incorporate temporal autocorrelations in individual reproduction can be difficult to parameterize, particularly when data are sparse. We therefore examine whether such models are necessary to avoid biased estimates of stochastic population growth and extinction risk, by comparing output from a matrix population model that incorporates reproductive autocorrelations to output from a standard age-structured matrix model that does not. We use a range of parameterizations, including a case study using moose data, treating probabilities of switching reproductive class as either fixed or fluctuating. Expected time to extinction from the two models is found to differ by only small amounts (under 10%) for most parameterizations, indicating that explicitly accounting for individual reproductive autocorrelations is in most cases not necessary to avoid bias in extinction estimates. Individual histories for moose at Vega 1984-2012Individual reproductive and survival histories for female moose at Vega 1984-2012. Numbers according to states: 1: Produced 0 calves, 2: Produced 1 calf, 3: Produced 2 calves, 4: Hunted, and 5: Natural death.Vegafemc190515.txt