Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change
Advances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and...
Published in: | Marine Ecology Progress Series |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | unknown |
Published: |
2015
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://zenodo.org/record/46280 https://doi.org/10.3354/meps11299 |
id |
ftzenodo:oai:zenodo.org:46280 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftzenodo:oai:zenodo.org:46280 2023-06-06T11:52:34+02:00 Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change Villarino, Ernesto Chust, Guillem Licandro, Priscilla Butenschön, Momme Ibaibarriaga, Leire Larrañaga, Aitor Irigoien, Xabier 2015-07-02 https://zenodo.org/record/46280 https://doi.org/10.3354/meps11299 unknown info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/264933/ https://zenodo.org/communities/euro-basin https://zenodo.org/communities/ecfunded https://zenodo.org/record/46280 https://doi.org/10.3354/meps11299 oai:zenodo.org:46280 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Marine Ecology Progress Series 531 121-142 (2015) Zooplankton Habitat suitability GAM Climate change North Atlantic Biogeography info:eu-repo/semantics/article publication-article 2015 ftzenodo https://doi.org/10.3354/meps11299 2023-04-13T23:03:53Z Advances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and validated habitat models for key zooplankton species using continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data collected at mid latitudes of the North Atlantic. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to relate the occurrence of species to environmental variables. Models were projected to future (2080–2099) environmental conditions using coupled hydroclimatix–biogeochemical models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate scenario, and compared to present (2001–2020) conditions. Our projections indicated that the copepod community is expected to respond substantially to climate change: a mean poleward latitudinal shift of 8.7 km per decade for the overall community with an important species range variation (–15 to 18 km per decade); the species seasonal peak is expected to occur 12–13 d earlier for Calanus finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus; and important changes in community structure are also expected (high species turnover of 43–79% south of the Oceanic Polar Front). The impacts of the change expected by the end of the century under IPCC global warming scenarios on copepods highlight poleward shifts, earlier seasonal peak and changes in biodiversity spatial patterns that might lead to alterations of the future North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem. Our model and projections are supported by a temporal validation undertaken using the North Atlantic climate regime shift that occurred in the 1980s: the habitat model built in the cold period (1970–1986) has been validated in the warm period (1987–2004). Article in Journal/Newspaper Calanus finmarchicus North Atlantic Copepods Zenodo Gam ENVELOPE(-57.955,-57.955,-61.923,-61.923) Marine Ecology Progress Series 531 121 142 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Zenodo |
op_collection_id |
ftzenodo |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Zooplankton Habitat suitability GAM Climate change North Atlantic Biogeography |
spellingShingle |
Zooplankton Habitat suitability GAM Climate change North Atlantic Biogeography Villarino, Ernesto Chust, Guillem Licandro, Priscilla Butenschön, Momme Ibaibarriaga, Leire Larrañaga, Aitor Irigoien, Xabier Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change |
topic_facet |
Zooplankton Habitat suitability GAM Climate change North Atlantic Biogeography |
description |
Advances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and validated habitat models for key zooplankton species using continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data collected at mid latitudes of the North Atlantic. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to relate the occurrence of species to environmental variables. Models were projected to future (2080–2099) environmental conditions using coupled hydroclimatix–biogeochemical models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate scenario, and compared to present (2001–2020) conditions. Our projections indicated that the copepod community is expected to respond substantially to climate change: a mean poleward latitudinal shift of 8.7 km per decade for the overall community with an important species range variation (–15 to 18 km per decade); the species seasonal peak is expected to occur 12–13 d earlier for Calanus finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus; and important changes in community structure are also expected (high species turnover of 43–79% south of the Oceanic Polar Front). The impacts of the change expected by the end of the century under IPCC global warming scenarios on copepods highlight poleward shifts, earlier seasonal peak and changes in biodiversity spatial patterns that might lead to alterations of the future North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem. Our model and projections are supported by a temporal validation undertaken using the North Atlantic climate regime shift that occurred in the 1980s: the habitat model built in the cold period (1970–1986) has been validated in the warm period (1987–2004). |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Villarino, Ernesto Chust, Guillem Licandro, Priscilla Butenschön, Momme Ibaibarriaga, Leire Larrañaga, Aitor Irigoien, Xabier |
author_facet |
Villarino, Ernesto Chust, Guillem Licandro, Priscilla Butenschön, Momme Ibaibarriaga, Leire Larrañaga, Aitor Irigoien, Xabier |
author_sort |
Villarino, Ernesto |
title |
Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change |
title_short |
Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change |
title_full |
Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change |
title_fullStr |
Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change |
title_sort |
modelling the future biogeography of north atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://zenodo.org/record/46280 https://doi.org/10.3354/meps11299 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-57.955,-57.955,-61.923,-61.923) |
geographic |
Gam |
geographic_facet |
Gam |
genre |
Calanus finmarchicus North Atlantic Copepods |
genre_facet |
Calanus finmarchicus North Atlantic Copepods |
op_source |
Marine Ecology Progress Series 531 121-142 (2015) |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/264933/ https://zenodo.org/communities/euro-basin https://zenodo.org/communities/ecfunded https://zenodo.org/record/46280 https://doi.org/10.3354/meps11299 oai:zenodo.org:46280 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3354/meps11299 |
container_title |
Marine Ecology Progress Series |
container_volume |
531 |
container_start_page |
121 |
op_container_end_page |
142 |
_version_ |
1767958497010384896 |