Link between autumn Arctic Sea ice and Northern Hemisphere winter forecast skill
THE 2020 EUROPEAN POLAR SCIENCE WEEK Dynamical forecast systems have low to moderate skill in continental winter predictions in the extratropics. Here we assess the multimodel predictive skill over Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and midlatitudes using four state‐of‐the‐art forecast systems. Our...
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ftzenodo:oai:zenodo.org:4538239 2023-05-15T14:55:17+02:00 Link between autumn Arctic Sea ice and Northern Hemisphere winter forecast skill Ortega, Pablo Acosta Navarro, Juan 2020-10-29 https://zenodo.org/record/4538239 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4538239 unknown info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/727862/ doi:10.5281/zenodo.4538238 https://zenodo.org/communities/applicate https://zenodo.org/record/4538239 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4538239 oai:zenodo.org:4538239 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode info:eu-repo/semantics/lecture presentation 2020 ftzenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.453823910.5281/zenodo.4538238 2023-03-10T22:56:15Z THE 2020 EUROPEAN POLAR SCIENCE WEEK Dynamical forecast systems have low to moderate skill in continental winter predictions in the extratropics. Here we assess the multimodel predictive skill over Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and midlatitudes using four state‐of‐the‐art forecast systems. Our main goal was to quantify the impact of the Arctic sea ice state during November on the sea level pressure (SLP), surface temperature, and precipitation skill during the following winter. Interannual variability of the November Barents and Kara Sea ice is associated with an important fraction of December to February (DJF) prediction skill in regions of Eurasia. We further show that skill related to sea ice in these regions is accompanied with enhanced skill of DJF SLP in western Russia, established by a sea ice‐atmosphere teleconnection mechanism. The teleconnection is strongest when atmospheric blocking conditions in Scandinavia/western Russia in November reduce a systematic SLP bias that is present in all systems. Conference Object Arctic Kara Sea Sea ice Zenodo Arctic Kara Sea |
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ftzenodo |
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description |
THE 2020 EUROPEAN POLAR SCIENCE WEEK Dynamical forecast systems have low to moderate skill in continental winter predictions in the extratropics. Here we assess the multimodel predictive skill over Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and midlatitudes using four state‐of‐the‐art forecast systems. Our main goal was to quantify the impact of the Arctic sea ice state during November on the sea level pressure (SLP), surface temperature, and precipitation skill during the following winter. Interannual variability of the November Barents and Kara Sea ice is associated with an important fraction of December to February (DJF) prediction skill in regions of Eurasia. We further show that skill related to sea ice in these regions is accompanied with enhanced skill of DJF SLP in western Russia, established by a sea ice‐atmosphere teleconnection mechanism. The teleconnection is strongest when atmospheric blocking conditions in Scandinavia/western Russia in November reduce a systematic SLP bias that is present in all systems. |
format |
Conference Object |
author |
Ortega, Pablo Acosta Navarro, Juan |
spellingShingle |
Ortega, Pablo Acosta Navarro, Juan Link between autumn Arctic Sea ice and Northern Hemisphere winter forecast skill |
author_facet |
Ortega, Pablo Acosta Navarro, Juan |
author_sort |
Ortega, Pablo |
title |
Link between autumn Arctic Sea ice and Northern Hemisphere winter forecast skill |
title_short |
Link between autumn Arctic Sea ice and Northern Hemisphere winter forecast skill |
title_full |
Link between autumn Arctic Sea ice and Northern Hemisphere winter forecast skill |
title_fullStr |
Link between autumn Arctic Sea ice and Northern Hemisphere winter forecast skill |
title_full_unstemmed |
Link between autumn Arctic Sea ice and Northern Hemisphere winter forecast skill |
title_sort |
link between autumn arctic sea ice and northern hemisphere winter forecast skill |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://zenodo.org/record/4538239 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4538239 |
geographic |
Arctic Kara Sea |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Kara Sea |
genre |
Arctic Kara Sea Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Kara Sea Sea ice |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/727862/ doi:10.5281/zenodo.4538238 https://zenodo.org/communities/applicate https://zenodo.org/record/4538239 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4538239 oai:zenodo.org:4538239 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.453823910.5281/zenodo.4538238 |
_version_ |
1766327080224555008 |